Archives Index, 2018 November
30 November 2018 — 1052 mst
Trump much more popular in Montana
than in the nation as a whole
President Trump’s net popularity in Montana remains approximately 20 points higher than in the nation as a whole — and was higher in September and October than in January and August. That increased popularity, probably the result of his visits to Montana, didn't result in Matt Rosendale's defeating Jon Tester, Trump's prime objective, but it may well have boosted Republican turnout to the extent that Democrats could not ride a blue wave to electoral gains downballot.
29 November 2018 — 0756 mst
John Allen Chau violated the Prime Directive —
Was death the proper punishment for his transgression?
Captain Kirk probably would have left the Sentinelese alone. That was his duty under Star Fleet’s Prime Directive:
General Order 1. As the right of each sentient species to live in accordance with its normal cultural evolution is considered sacred, no Starfleet personnel may interfere with the normal and healthy development of alien life and culture. Such interference includes introducing superior knowledge, strength, or technology to a world whose society is incapable of handling such advantages wisely. Starfleet personnel may not violate this Prime Directive, even to save their lives and/or their ship, unless they are acting to right an earlier violation or an accidental contamination of said culture. This directive takes precedence over any and all other considerations, and carries with it the highest moral obligation.
27 November 2018 — 1808 mst
A song for Senator Cindy of Mississippi
Confederate Cindy’s in the land of cotton,
Lost causes there are not forgotten,
Hey, hey, hey, it’s okay, it’s just the way,
Of Dixieland.
22 November 2018
Happy Thanksgiving!
20 November 2018 — 1618 mst
Columbia Falls may become a PM10 air quality attainment area
In its industrial heyday, with the aluminum plant spitting fluorides, lumber mills and wood products factories spewing particulates, and unpaved roads and parking lots sending clouds of dust in the air, Columbia Falls was a locus of dirty air, and a violator of the Clean Air Act. Formally, it became a non-attainment area for PM10 particulates.
Now, after years of emissions reductions, the town’s airshed meets the criteria for an air quality attainment area, and Montana’s government is petitioning the federal government for redesignation to that standard.
19 November 2018 — 1018 mst
Another attack on Daylight Saving Time;
Rescuing expanded Medicaid in Montana;
How Democrats plan to lose the 2020 Presidential election
Thanksgiving week stand down notice. If I don’t post anything for a day, or two, or few, don’t start checking the obituaries. I’m taking a short break from blogging.
Does Montana need a referendum on Daylight Saving Time?
Senator-elect John Esp (R-Big Timber, SD-30), a former legislator returning from a term limits imposed absence, has requested LC-1303, which has the short title “Referendum on daylight savings [sic] time.”
Repealing Daylight Saving Time, and getting back to “God’s time,” also known as Mountain Standard Time, one of the time zones established by the railroads that some people mistake for God, is a perennial project of the Montana Farm Bureau. In the 2017 legislative session, Sen. Ryan Osmundson (R-Buffalo), succeeded in sneaking a DST bill through the MT Senate 36-14, but the bill died in the MT House after an aroused public demanded retaining their after dinner sunshine (story 1, story 2). Among those shouting “Hell No!” were athletics boosters in small towns without lights for their high school football fields.
16 November 2018 — 1236 mst
Hate speech and free speech
Whitefish, and the reprehensible conduct of an online right wing provocateur, are the subject of a story in today’s New York Times, Neo-Nazis Have No First Amendment Right to Harassment, Judge Rules. U.S. District Court Judge Dana Christensen, a former Flathead resident, denied the provocateur’s attempt to have a Whitefish resident’s lawsuit against him dismissed. The provocateur had argued he was exercising his First Amendment rights. The ruling clears the way to a trial, with the outcome far from certain.
The ruling has provoked cries of “hate speech is not free speech,” the mantra of human rights activists who want to compel everyone to say only nice things. Who gets to decide what’s nice and what’s not? Presumably, the government, with guidance from the activists.
I recommend reading Christensen’s ruling. I also recommend reading Nadine Strossen’s new book, HATE: Why We Should Resist It with Free Speech, Not Censorship. Strossen, who led the American Civil Liberties Union for 17 years, is a Harvard educated professor of law at New York Law School. Her father was a Holocaust survivor.
15 November 2018 — 1716 mst
Pelosi’s last hurrah
The time to pass the torch is when one still can — unless you’re a geriatric Democrat in the U.S. House of Representatives; unless you’re Nancy Pelosi (78), Steny Hoyer (79), or Jim Clyburn (78). These three plan to hold the torch until they’re dead, and after they die, they apparently plan to have their corpses lashed to their seats in Congress and their torches taped to their dead hands.
15 November 2018 — 1548 mst
Mandeville wants to require a supermajority for tax and fee increases;
Keane continues jihad on PowerPoint; Lynch would legalize sports betting
Requests for bills for the 2019 session of the Montana Legislature now number 1,294. Most requests have a generic title, and are placeholders for legislation that will be drafted later, but some have titles that are clear as day and therefore serve as announcements that mischief is afoot.
14 November 2018 — 1546 mst
Hot music for a cold day in Montana
Bruce Daigrepont, a master of the wet-tuned Cajun Accordion, and his Zydeco Cajun band in action in Saulieu, France, in 2014, when he was 56 years old. This is the second of four videos of his performance there.
13 November 2018 — 1519 mst
Legislature’s website, Florida, and the Green Party’s brief
The Montana Legislature’s website is undergoing maintenance in broad daylight, which means many links are not available. I suspect the webmasters are preparing for tomorrow, when the political parties choose their leaders for the 2019 session. One link that was unavailable when I began writing this post: requests for drafts of bills. Website maintenance should be performed from midnight Friday to 0500 on Saturday.
Florida
Three elections in Florida are being recounted: U.S. Senator, Governor, and Agriculture Commissioner. Expressed as percentages, the elections are very close, but the candidates are thousands of votes apart. Unless a systemic error that flips or discovers thousands of votes is discovered, I suspect Republicans Rick Scott and Ron DeSantis will prevail. Recounts seldom change the outcome of elections.
12 November 2018 — 0944 mst
Comparison of 2004 and 2018 tobacco tax initiatives
In 2004, voters approved an increase in Montana’s tobacco tax by a two to one margin. Last week, they rejected Initiative 185, which raised tobacco taxes and removed the sunset provision in the law approving expanded Medicaid.
The graph below compares how Montana’s counties voted in both elections.
11 November 2018
Veterans Day
My solemn and heartfelt thanks to all who serve, who have served, and who will serve. Your sacrifices and dedication to duty keep our nation strong and free. I salute you. — James Conner
10 November 2018 — 0555 mst
Only five Montana counties produced majorities for Initiative 185
Even notoriously Republican Flathead County was more pro-185 than Cascade, Ravalli, and Yellowstone Counties.
Incidentally, I’m beginning to receive difficult to dismiss reports that the tobacco industry said it wouldn’t strenuously object to a more modest increase in the tobacco tax; for example, $1.25 per pack of cigarettes. Was the initiative doomed because its authors got greedy? One-hundred-thousand Montanans who are going to lose their health insurance would like to know.
9 November 2018 — 2232 mst
Montana's 2018 midterm turnout highest
since voting age lowered to 18 in 1972
Several thousand provisional votes are still being counted, but enough of the vote is in that we can conclude that the turnout in Montana’s 2018 election was the highest in a Montana midterm since the voting age was lowered to 18 in 1972. That’s remarkable.
For the analysis and graphs below I’ve used two turnout statistics.
8 November 2018 — 0826 mst
Montana’s high turnout election ratified the status quo
And that’s not good for Montana’s Democrats, who should not let Jon Tester’s re-election blind them to the harsh reality that our legislature remains controlled by Republicans, and that an attempt to extend expanded Medicaid was overwhelmingly rejected by the voters.
7 November 2018 — 1306 mst
Second post-election roundup
Sen. Jon Tester now leads Matt Rosendale by approximately 7,000 votes with approximately 60,000 votes, mostly in heavily Democratic Gallatin and Missoula Counts, still not counted. The Associated Press has declared Tester the winner, Tester has claimed victory, and there are reports Rosendale has conceded.
7 November 2018 — 0514 mst
First post-election roundup
The votes are still being counted in Montana’s largest counties — the counties where the most Democratic votes are found. Kathleen Williams is 37,000 votes behind Greg Gianforte. She may close the gap some, but it appears Gianforte will win. Sen. Jon Tester is slightly under 4,000 votes behind Matt Rosendale, but the votes from Missoula and Gallatin Counties could overcome that deficit, returning Tester to the U.S. Senate for another six years.
6 November 2018 — 0952 mst
Republican pollster Trafalgar releases poll
showing Tester leading Rosendale by a point
Take this poll, released today, with more than one grain of salt.
The Atlanta, Georgia based Trafalgar Group sampled 953 likely voters during 2–5 November. The sampling margin of error margin of error is 3.2 percent. Trafalgar did not disclose its sampling methodology or how the sample was weighted, but the firm’s entry in the Ballotpedia suggests robopolling:
5 November 2018 — 1542 mst
New poll reports Rosendale plus 3, Gianforte plus 8
A Change Research poll conducted 2–4 November and released today reports Matt Rosendale is leading Sen. Jon Tester by three points, and that Rep. Greg Gianforte has an eight-point lead on Kathleen Williams. Libertarians Rick Breckenridge and Elinor Swanson were at three and two points respectively.
As displayed on the plots below, the Rosendale versus Tester result is an outlier, but the Gianforte versus Williams is not.
How the sample of 879 likely voters was taken and weighted are unknown. The sampling margin of error is 3.3 percent. The paucity of information about the poll’s methodology and crosstabs raises red flags and suggests the survey may have been conducted by a partisan organization and released to gain a partisan advantage.
4 November 2018 — 0438 mst
Latest NRF poll puts Tester up eight points
The latest NRF tracking poll, conducted by robocalls, show Sen. Jon Tester leading Matt Rosendale by eight points. FiveThirtyEight has changed its reporting of these polls, and I’ve changed my plots accordingly.
3 November 2018 — 1128 mdt
Saturday morning roundup
All political parties and candidates now are in the get out the vote mode. President Trump holds an airport pep rally in Bozeman today, and the Democrats, led by Sen. Jon Tester and Gov. Steve Bullock, are holding a pep rally in Kalispell shortly after noon, and probably in another city or two.
Here are the latest registration and turnout numbers from the MT SecST’s website:
Rosendale and the Oath Keepers
Rosendale and the Oath KeepersFour years ago, Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate Matt Rosendale spoke at a Second Amendment rally in Kalispell. I was there with my camera. Yesterday, Talking Points Memo published a report on Rosendale’s dalliance with the Oath Keepers, who make a lot of people uneasy. It’s worth reading, as is Don Pogreba’s post on Rosendale and the Oath Keepers. It’s not a group one with which one wants to be associated if one wants to cultivate a reputation for moderation and peaceable problem solving.
2 November 2018 — 1427 mdt
FiveThirtyEight forecasts 2018 Montana turnout
will be slightly lower than turnout in 2006
FiveThirtyEight’s forecasts for the Montana elections for the U.S. Senate and House project a voting eligible population turnout that’s slightly less than in 2006, when a blue wave barely carried Sen. Jon Tester to victory but wasn’t enough to push Monica Lindeen past Denny Rehberg for the U.S. House.
2 November 2018 — 0522 mdt
New poll puts Tester up by seven points
Pence will hold GOP rally in the Flathead on Monday
Sen. Jon Tester leads Matt Rosendale 48–41 percent according to a Harris Interactive poll released today. Conducted 25–31 October for the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers & National Retail Federation, the poll was conducted partly during and after the synagogue murders in Pittsburgh and the pipe bomb attacks on high profile political critics of President Trump. The poll apparently used robocalls to sample 1,225 likely voters, and has a sampling margin of error of 2.8 percent. The latest plots are below.
1 November 2018 — 1051 mdt
Political briefs
North Dakota’s racist election laws. At Slate, Mark Stern has a detailed report on North Dakota’s attempt to disenfranchise voters living in that state’s Indian Country. The state’s election laws, revised after Democrat Heidi Heitkamp’s narrow U.S. Senate victory in 2012, are as ugly as anything devised during the Jim Crow era down south.
Independents appear to be breaking for Democrats. A post by Miami University poly sci prof Kevin Reuning at the WTHH blog reports that self-identified independent voters are breaking for Democrats by a two-to-one margin in early voting, a trend also identified in the MTN-MSU poll led by MSU political scientist Dr. David Parker. This could be evidence that the blue wave is building, and building strongly.
All still a-Twitter on the Breckenridge front. The debate over whether Libertarian U.S. Senate candidate Rick Breckenridge endorsed Republican Matt Rosendale continues. I remain convinced that he did, and that he did so in a insouciant manner that contributed to the fog of politics, and aided the Libertarian Party’s efforts to control the damage done by a candidate gone rogue. My friends at The Montana Post disagree. There does seem to be general agreement that Breckenridge’s maneuver occurred so late in the campaign that it won’t help Rosendale. Update. At Montana Public Radio, Eric Whitney’s story on Breckenridge’s endorsement of Rosendale has a transcript of Whitney’s conversations with Breckenridge.
Union wins Three Fork lockout battle. The Boilermakers probably are tossing down a boilermaker or two in celebration. They should. Imerys Talc America met the union’s demands, and the men are going back to work. They had solid support from Gov. Bullock, Sen. Tester, PSC candidate Andy Shirtliff, and many others, and maintained their solidarity and spirits. Give them a well earned triple Hoorah! Give Imerys a well deserved Bronx cheer for its unwise attempt to strongarm the workers. The next time Imerys’ managers are tempted to start a lockout, they should instead take a powder.