The first Montana university levy was passed in 1920

If you listen to the drumbeaters thumping for Legislative Referendum 128, which would extend for another ten years the six-mil levy that helps fund the academic side of Montana’s universities, you will encounter two misleading assertions: the levy is a tradition dating from 1948, and support for the levy has been declining.

That’s the advertising pitch to get you to vote Yes. The historical truth is more interesting, but it’s being ignored by the propagandists promoting the levy. They evidently think the full history story is too complicated for the simple Montanans without college degrees who comprise approximately two-thirds of the voters.

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AARP poll

Yesterday, the American Association for Retired People released a poll (available at FiveThirtyEight) reporting Jon Tester leading Matt Rosendale by seven points, 50 to 43 percent, and Greg Gianforte leading Kathleen Williams by a single point, 46 to 45 percent. The sample was 950 likely voters, and the nominal MOE is 3.2 percent, but voters aged 50 and older were oversampled, so determining the true margin of error is a bit tricky. The Berenson Strategy Group conducted the poll during 6–16 September.

I’m uneasy with this poll, so I’m going to learn more about it this weekend and report back to you on Monday.

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Protests against confirming Judge Kavanaugh to the U.S. Supreme Court
will be held across Montana today at Sen. Daines’ offices during the noon hour

Nathan Kosted at The Montana Post has the details. In Kalispell, the festivities begin at 1215 MDT.

If you forget to RSVP, just show up. You’ll be welcome.

At this point, it appears the judiciary committee will vote on the nomination today, and that procedural events leading to a Monday floor vote on the nomination will commence Saturday. The Republicans will ram the nomination through if they can, knowing that nothing short of a revolution could dislodge Kavanaugh from the court once he’s on it. If he’s approved, perhaps he’ll be awarded the chair Justice McReynolds used.

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Today’s hearing on the Kavanaugh nomination

Update, 1740 MDT. I watched a few minutes of the hearing. Some takeaways:

• Old age caught up with Sen. Charles Grassley, the 84-year-old committee chairman. He was grouchy as a farmer who’d just been skewered with a pitchfork, and needlessly partisan and confrontational.
• The five-minute rule guarantees chaos and is designed not to help get at the truth but to help the senators preen before the cameras.
• It's still he said, she said. Dr. Blasey's accusations have not been corroborated. That doesn’t matter, because:
• Kavanaugh has a mean streak and a combative temperament that make him an effective partisan, but that have no place on the Supreme Court. He's an avenging angel, not an evenhanded interpreter of laws.

Earlier. Although I’d planned to watch the hearing live, medical exigencies require my presence elsewhere this morning, and perhaps most of today. Had I watched the hearing live, I would not have blogged or Tweeted it live. It may devolve into a cringe inducing circus, but that does not justify reporting on it as though it’s a ball game.

If the testimony is compelling, if it raises question for which answers must be sought prior to the senate’s making a decision on the nomination, I expect the vote on the nomination will be deferred at least several days. But unless Trump or Kavanaugh withdraw the nomination, I do expect the nomination to be voted up or down before late October. —JRC

Gravis poll contains good news for Jon Tester,
mostly bad news for Kathleen Williams

A poll conducted by Gravis Marketing last week reports Sen. Jon Tester is leading his Republican challenger, Montana State Auditor Matt Rosendale, by four points, 49 to 45 percent. The same poll reports Rep. Greg Gianforte is leading his Democratic challenger, former state legislator Kathleen Williams, by nine points, 51 to 42 percent. The probability that Tester has a ballot lead is 86 percent; that Gianforte has a ballot leader, 99 percent.

The poll sampled 710 likely voters using interactive voice technology (robocalls) and a panel for cell phone users. FiveThirtyEight gives Gravis a C+ rating, down from a B rating in June.

A poll Gravis conducted just after the primary in June reported Tester leading Rosendale 52 to 44 percent — and Williams leading Gianforte 49 to 43 percent.

Below, time series plots of the polls for the two campaigns, followed by a breakdown of each candidate’s support by age and sex.

PDF for printing

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Is the Lung Cancer Lobby lying about Initiative 185?

Initiative 185 raises taxes on tobacco products sold in Montana, and repeals the sunset provision in the law that expanded Medicaid in Montana.

Healthy Montana, the organization behind I-185 says big tobacco, which is spending approximately $9 million to defeat I-185, is blowing a cloud of dirty lies at the voters:

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Even crazier on the Kavanaugh front

We’ll survive the Kavanaugh confirmation, but it won’t make us stronger. At this point, I think the Senate’s Republicans, having polled the issue, have decided to take the hill and accept the casualties. They’re going to streamroll Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation because once on the U.S. Supreme Court, removing him would be exceedingly difficult. Another poll could change matters, but that’s where things now stand.

Meanwhile, many opponents of Kavanaugh are behaving disgracefully. Some are gathering by the thousands to support his accusers, chanting “we believe women,” apparently oblivious to the paucity of evidence corroborating the accusations. This frenzy approaches hysteria.

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Politico rates Williams v. Gianforte as “Likely Republican”

Politico rates Rep. Greg Gianforte as the likely winner of the election for Montana’s sole seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. A Democrat has not won the seat since Pat Williams won by a plurality in 1994.

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Republican poll reports Tester and Rosendale tied at 44 percent

A poll conducted by Axis Research for the Republican National Senatorial Committee earlier this week found Sen. Jon Tester tied at 44 percent with eight percent undecided and four percent preferring Libertarian Rick Breckenridge. The live caller — landlines and cells — poll sampled 480 likely voters and has a sampling margin of error of 4.8 percent.

PDF for printing

According to the Washington Examiner, a conservative publication that had access to a copy of the pollster’s report, Tester’s support is eroding:

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All crazy on the Kavanaugh front

Christine Blasey Ford, who accused U.S. Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh of trying to forcibly disrobe her when she was 15 and he was 17, says she will not testify before the senate’s judiciary committee on Monday. Through her attorney, she said she’s open to testifying later in the week, provided acceptable limits to the questioning can be established.

That’s reasonable, but politically naive. As Slate’s Jim Newell noted, the Republicans, wanting her not to testify, have laid a trap:

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Note to readers

It’s too nice a day to spend indoors at the computer, and my old laptop’s screen isn’t bright enough for writing in the September sunshine. I’ll be back tomorrow, but expect shorter posts while the sunshine lasts. —James Conner

CBS News poll reports Tester leads Rosendale by two points

A poll (PDF) conducted by yougov.com last week for CBS News reports Sen. Jon Tester is leading Matt Rosendale 47–45 percent with five percent undecided and three percent favoring “someone else.”

PDF for printing

The online poll sampled 453 registered voters and has a margin of error of 5.2 percent. Although the two-point difference is within the margin of error, there’s a 66 percent probability that Tester is leading Rosendale.

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Evacuation is not always better than sheltering in place

Hurricane Florence made landfall in the Carolinas overnight. I have family and friends up and down the east coast, but not next to the ocean, fortunately, so I’ve been following the storm’s progress. Some of my kin may get wet, but mostly they’ll be lighting candles and dealing with other inconveniences. I doubt any needed to evacuate.

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538.com forecasts high probability of Tester win

The forecasts for the U.S. Senate released yesterday by Nate Silver at 538.com will gladden the hearts of Montana’s Democrats. All of Silver’s forecasts for Montana give high odds that incumbent Democrat Sen. Jon Tester will be elected to a third term.

I’m not as optimistic, and rate the election a toss-up. Although a 14 June Gravis poll reported Tester was up seven points, that lead declined to three points in a Remington Research poll conducted after President Trump’s visit to Great Falls. A partisan poll conducted by WPA Research on 20–22 August put Rosendale three points ahead. With the exception of the Survey Monkey polls conducted for Axios (more on that in a moment), those are the only publicly available polls.

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Missoula Independent newspaper closed without warning

The Missoula Independent is no more. Employees who arrived for work this morning found the doors locked and that the newspaper, which had been purchased by the Missoulian last fall, was closed. The Indy’s website now defaults to the Missoulian’s, and access to the Indy’s archives, a valuable resource, is in doubt.

I’ve been expecting this. Lee Enterprises didn’t purchase the Indy to keep it open. Lee bought the Indy to strip it of assets, then, following a decent interval, close it down, eliminating expenses and competition. The decent interval expired yesterday and the liquidation has begun.

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There’s no defense for Serena Williams’ bad behavior

Serena Williams is not a rookie on the professional tennis tour. She’s a 36-year-old veteran of the sport with an impressive record of winning. When she enters tournaments, she — and every other player — knows and accepts the rules. A the U.S. Open, she knew that coaching was forbidden, that smashing a racquet in frustration was forbidden, and that verbally abusing an official was forbidden (not to mention mean and lowbrow). And she knew that the chair umpire for her championship match against Naomi Osaka would be Carlos Ramos, a strict constructionist.

So it should not have come as a surprise to her when she was penalized because the coach that she hired and whose duties she defined was caught coaching. Nor should she have surprised that she was docked a point for wrecking her racket, or docked a game for calling the chair umpire a liar and a thief.

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Sports notes, mostly sour

The football season has started, the tennis season is approaching an end, and major league baseball, the only professional sport I enjoy watching, is approaching the playoffs. Today, comments on tennis and football.

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More major changes at Kalispell Regional Healthcare

Yesterday we learned that Pamela Robertson’s last day as KRH’s CEO will be 30 November. We also learned that two Flathead Valley businessmen have been added to KRH’s board of directors.

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Tester’s in trouble, Kavanaugh, and water bottling chutzpah

President Trump speaks in Billings this evening, hoping to win votes for Matt Rosendale and to back Sen. Tester into a corner on the confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh to the U.S. Supreme Court. Tester, reports the Bozeman Daily Chronicle, is running a television ad reminding voters that Trump has signed legislation that Tester sponsored.

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Identity politics is illiberal

Yesterday, the Democratic voters of Massachusettes’seventh congressional district decided by a 59–41 percent margin to replace ten-term Rep. Michael Capuano, a hard-working progressive to the left of Bernie Sanders, and a man who stayed in touch with his district, with Ayanna Pressely, a member of Boston’s city council. Pressely admitted she would vote the same way as Capuano, but said she would lead differently because she was black and female. The seventh, she argued, was a racially and ethnically diverse district with a white plurality, and should be led by a person of color, not by a white man.

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The changing of the guard at the Daily InterLake

The news that Frank Miele is retiring as editor of the Daily InterLake at the end of September was greeted with sighs of conservative sadness and whoops and hollers of liberal joy. He’ll be replaced by Matt Baldwin, a man a generation younger.

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Montana voter registration as a percent of population

As of 1 July, Montana’s population numbered approximately 1,060,000. And as of 2 September, 689,265 Montanans were registered to vote. Using mid-August registration totals, and U.S. Census Bureau county population estimates for 1 July 2017 (the latest available), I plotted the percentage of the population registered in each county as a function of that county’s population. There are some interesting variations.

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Labor Day note

I spent Labor Day laboring in my yard, at least to the extent that steering a riding lawnmower, aiming a stream of water at flowerpots, and running Old Glory up the flagpole, can be considered labor. Tomorrow, I’ll be back to laboring over the keyboard and producing what some consider pontifications, but I consider reasoned analysis, on politics and other subjects. — James Conner