A special note to readers on the future of Flathead Memo

I haven’t posted since last Friday, when I commented on the absurdity of Trump’s imposing tariff’s that hurt farmers, then trying to mitigate the economic damage they suffered by giving them cash. Two days later, working in my garage, I leaned too far reaching for a pipe, lost my balance, and had my fall arrested by the corner of a box poking me hard in my ribs. By Tuesday evening, the pain and other discomfort was so severe that I checked into the emergency room in case I had suffered a pneumothorax or a blood clot. I hadn’t but I’m still hurting enough that focusing on writing is difficult. But in time, my ribs will heal.

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Farmers who voted for Trump should not be
compensated for their losses caused by his trade wars

President Trump, surrounded by MAGA-hatted farmers, today announced a $16 billion program to compensate farmers who are suffering financial losses resulting from his gratuitous trade war with China. This doubtless makes many farmers, including those smart enough not to have voted for him, happy.

It doesn’t make me happy.

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Democrats should lay off Steve Bullock — he doesn’t want
to be a Senator, and Steve Daines likely can’t be defeated

Many Democrats are exasperated with Steve Bullock for his decision to run for President, an office they believe he has little chance of winning, and not for the U.S. Senate seat now occupied by Republican Steve Daines, an office they believe Bullock can win. Some Democrats, Wilmot Collins not among them, are waiting for Bullock to come to his senses and run for the Senate.

Respectfully, it’s time for these Democrats to come their own senses and to face the facts. Bullock sees himself as an executive, as a man-in-charge decision maker, not as a legislator. And he believes he’s outgrown Montana, that he now belongs on the national stage. Were he to run for the Senate, he’d be a reluctant candidate, an unhappy candidate, and consequently a weak candidate.

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Trump’s net approval in Montana remains above water

Nationwide, according to FiveThirtyEight, President Trump’s net approval rating is minus 11.1 percent. But in Montana, according to Morning Consult, his net approval is positive at plus three percent:

PDF for printing

Note. The markers in the graph are based on one-decimal place precision. The labels are rounded to the nearest whole number to fit on the page.

As long as Trump remains more popular than not in Montana, Sen. Steve Daines, who is seeking re-election next year, will regurgitate the Gospel of Donald incessantly and shamelessly, and might even dye his hair orange to flaunt his solidarity with our prevaricator in chief. The best way to beat Daines is for Democrats to nominate a candidate who can beat Trump in Montana.

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Stand down notice

Flathead Memo is standing down today so that its editor and janitor can finish working in his yard while the sun is shining. Rain returns tomorrow, which is when posts at Flathead Memo will return.

Steve Bullock: running as a younger, more vigorous, Biden
Wilmot Collins: sans platform, but with one hell of a story

President. Montana Governor Steve Bullock formally announced today what everyone not stranded on as asteroid without a radio already knew: he’s running the the Democratic nomination for President. He joins at least 20 other Democrats who see themselves as the nation’s chief executive.

Senator. Yesterday, Wilmot Collins, Helena’s mayor, announced he running for the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate seat now occupied by Republican Steve Daines. Collins probably won’t be the last Democrat to seek the nomination.

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Steve Bullock’s formal announcement that he’s running for
President is imminent — what are his odds of winning?

It’s no secret that Governor of Montana Steve Bullock looks in the mirror and see the next President of the United States. He’s spent at least the last year laying the groundwork for a campaign for the Democratic nomination, raising money, visiting Iowa, elevating his national profile, and in recent weeks, traveling with a private videography crew to acquire footage of himself appearing Presidential.

Now, reports The Hill, he’s releasing teaser videos as a ramp-up to formally announcing his candidacy, which I suspect will happen next week.

What are his chances of winning the nomination? And if he wins it, what are his chances of defeating President Trump. At this point, I’d say, low for the former, even for the latter.

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Kalispell’s voters kill $1.2 million high school levy

Yesterday, Billings passed a school levy for the first time in 12 years. Helena approved a levy by a 60–40 margin. But in the Flathead, the $1.2 million operating levy for Kalispell was rejected by over a thousand votes:

In Helena, 34 percent of registered voters cast ballots. I was not able to find turnout data for Billings.

Why did Kalispell’s levy fail? In part, I suspect, it went down because no good case was made for it. I received an expensive four-color, four-page, brochure from some entity — there was no return address, no “Paid for” information — that failed to disclose exactly how much money would be spent for what (example: $250k for new chemistry and physics textbooks). Its message boiled down to “We do good things, so give us the money. Trust us.” It was propaganda, and it enraged me. I doubt I was alone in my reaction.

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Political party control of the U.S. Presidency

Here’s an interesting — and for Democrats, ominous — statistic: since the election of 1896, a political party has been denied control of the White House after four years only once. That was in 1980 when incumbent Democrat Jimmy Carter lost his re-election bid to Ronald Reagan.

And since 1953, only one party has stayed in office more than eight consecutive years. The Republican administrations of Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush lasted from 1981 to 1993.

A lot of voters may be reflexively throwing out the bums after eight years, with rare exceptions.

Here’s a year by year breakdown of the occupancy of the White House by political party. The table displays an Excel spreadsheet that you can download.

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Toe tappin’ Cajun-Zydeco music to start your Thursday

Cajun legend Hubert Maitre was in his early seventies when he performed at the Ponchartrain 2012 festival. He died in 2017, but his lively performance lives on in this video.

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