A state level map of support for impeaching Trump

At some point today, the U.S. House of Representatives is expected to vote on House Resolution 660, which affirms that an impeachment inquiry is underway and lays out the rules for conducting that inquiry.

Update. The resolution was approved on an almost pure partyline vote.

On a national level, a narrow majority supports impeachment. I looked at polling results from Civiqs, an online operation, and FiveThirtyEight, which aggregates and averages polls.

Civiqs asked “Would you support or oppose impeaching Donald Trump?” The result: 52 percent support; 45 percent oppose; three percent were unsure.

More states, comprising more people, support than oppose impeachment.

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KXLH's story omits poll’s flaws

Don’t trust the MSU Billings poll of the
Montana Democratic U.S. Senate primary

A poll of an election, especially a primary election, almost always should include all of the candidates who have filed for the office. The poll just released by Montana State University at Billings did not include two major candidates for the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate, and therefore provides perishing little useful information on the subject.

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Plastics, political speechifying in the Flathead, and
turnout expert to address MT’s redistricting commission

Three major events, two in the Flathead, kick off November in Montana.

Plastics symposium in Kalispell

Plastic is a wonderful material with many uses that isn’t going away. In some cases, however, it’s going everywhere it shouldn’t, ending up, for example, as tiny white pellets that pollute streams and litter beaches. Even worse are the plastic microspheres once found in toothpaste and now found in surface water. Uncontained plastic trash is an especially acute problem in many Third World nations, such as Guatemala. In response, some communities are banning, or trying to ban, some consumer convenience plastics, such as straws and the foamed containers that keep fast food hamburgers warm.

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Note to readers

At Flathead Memo, this has been the week that I wish never started: computer crashes and unexpected personal demands on the blog’s editor and janitor produced an unwanted, unanticipated, circumstances imposed, moratorium on blogging. That moratorium should end tomorrow. Thanks for reading Flathead Memo. — James Conner

Latest quarterly approval numbers for
Bullock, Tester, and Daines

Morning Consult today released its approval numbers for senators and governors for the third quarter of 2019. There was little change in the ratings for Montana’s senators and governor.

First, a plot of the raw numbers.

     Double size      PDF for printing

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Wednesday political roundup

Last night, I endured three hours of the glorified press conference masquerading as the Democratic debate. Below, a few observations on that affair, plus notes on MT SecST Corey Stapleton and PSC Commissioner Brad Johnson, and a comment on the Flathead’s Love Lives Here’s invitation to its annual party.

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Montana Trump approval and impeachment support

In September, President Trump’s mean approval rating in Montana fell below 50 percent for the first time in two years, but his mean net approval rating stayed above water. And although new national polls report a majority of Americans now support the impeachment inquiry, it is still opposed by a majority of Montanans, but that majority may be shrinking.

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Is a Regier legislative dynasty developing in the Flathead?

Yes.

Senate District 3

Republican Sen. Keith Regier, a deeply conservative man in his late sixties, is running for re-election in Senate District 3 (Whitefish and NW Kalispell; map). On 29 August, he filed his C-1 form, which allows him to begin raising money for his campaign. He’ll probably win re-election, as his strength in HD-6 heavily outweighs his weakness in HD-5. Keith Regier previously served in the MT House, and on the Kalispell school board.

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Moderate Republican legislators are financially backing
a primary challenge to Derek Skees in House District 11

Republican Rep. Derek Skees has represented HD-11 (map), the high income, deep red, district that sprawls southwest of Kalispell and along the northwest shore of Flathead Lake since the election of 2016, handily defeating his Democratic opponents. Now he faces a potentially far greater obstacle to continuing his legislative career: a group of Republican legislators — his colleagues — who want him gone, and are throwing their financial support behind his primary challenger, Dee Kirk-Boon.

Among the legislators supporting Kirk-Boon is Rep. Frank Garner (R Kalispell, HD-7), the highly respected and popular former Kalispell chief of police. Garner contributed $150 to Dee Kirk Boon’s campaign (list of contributors below).

Skees hasn’t filed a C-1 form with Montana’s Commissioner of Political Practices yet, but on 19 July announced via Facebook that he’s running for re-election:

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Would Trump resign to avoid the stigma of being impeached?

A former employee of his, Barbara Res, thinks so, according to CNN. She believes “He does a lot of things to save face:”

Perhaps. But I doubt he’ll consider resigning as long as he believes that sycophantic Republican senators provide a firewall against conviction in the Senate no matter how damning the evidence presented by prosecutors from the House.

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Whitney Williams and Cora Neumann are
high risk candidates for Montana’s Democrats

Williams, Neumann

Governing and politicking are arts mastered through experience. Sometimes starting at the top works out well for the politician, the government, and the voters: witness Brian Schweitzer and Michael Bloomberg. Sometimes it does not: witness Donald Trump.

Bloomberg and Trump won their first elections. Schweitzer did not, narrowly losing to Republican Conrad Burns in 2000. The lessons Schweitzer learned from that campaign enabled him to win Montana’s gubernatorial election in 2004 despite George W. Bush’s carrying the state’s two-party vote by a three-to-two margin (60.5 percent to 39.5 percent). Schweitzer received 52.3 percent of the two-party vote, Bob Brown, 47.7 percent.

Whitney Williams, running for MT Governor, and Cora Neumann, running for U.S. Senator have impressive personal résumés, but they’re virgin candidates. They’ve been involved in politics and associated with the wives of presidents — Williams is Pat Williams’ daughter and worked with Hillary Clinton, Neumann worked with Laura Bush and Michele Obama — but neither has run for public office before. As candidates, they’re tyros.

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Age is now an issue

Did Bernie Sanders have a heart attack?

I suspect he did. His campaign said he experienced “discomfort” in his chest, and his spokespeople continue evading a straight answer to the question. If he did not have a heart attack, they would issue a straight, unequivocal, “No.”

He remains in a Las Vegas, NV, hospital, recovering from two stents being inserted in his heart. His wife says he’ll be released this weekend, then fly home to Burlington, VT, and prep for the 15 October Democratic Debate.

Although he’s carrying on with his campaign, I think his medical problems have killed any realistic chance that he can win the Democratic nomination. He’s 78, would be 79 when inaugurated, and 83 at the end of his first term. Should he continue campaigning, he’ll be hitting the hustings at a frenzied pace with a time bomb in his chest. Democrats who ask “Should be risk nominating an old man who could die or be incapacitated a month before the election?” will answer, No.

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Update at end of post

Workman’s compensation insurance employee Nelly Nicol
files C-1 for Republican primary for state auditor

Nicol filed her C-1, which allows her to begin raising money for her campaign, yesterday. Her campaign website is online. She joins Troy Downing in seeking the Republican nomination for the office. Incumbent auditor Matt Rosendale is running for Congress.

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