Archives Index, 2020 January
31 January 2020 — 0304 mst
Trump could be the last man standing
The Democratic Party’s circular firing squad
As Bernie Sanders’ campaign gathered steam in the spring of 2016, stories arguing he was an zealot, the de facto second coming of George McGovern, perhaps even of Che Guevara, began appearing in the mainstream media and the political press. He wasn’t a real Democrat, the stories alleged, but he was a real socialist, perhaps even a closet Marxist-Leninist, an enemy of free enterprise and economic liberty, an enemy of capitalism and competition who would submerge the American Way of Life in the Deep State’s authoritarian abyss. If nominated, they promised, he would lose the election — but Hillary, the best qualified nominee in the history of humankind, would win.
30 January 2020 — 1125 mst
Smartphone setup manual writers could learn how
to write clearly by studying old Heathkit manuals
A few days ago, I acquired an iPhone that can meld with my hearing aid. If it performs as advertised, I’ll be able, for the first time in a couple of decades, to conduct a rudimentary conversation over the telephone, and perhaps find a way to communicate with the hordes of businesspeople and health care workers who disdain email and generally disrespect and denigrate people with hearing losses.
But that day remains in the future, as I’m having the Devil’s own time setting up and activating my iPhone.
29 January 2020
GOP primary in HD-10, lazy candidates lose elections,
Republicans will back Trump no matter what he does
There will be a Republican primary in House District 10. Incumber Mark Noland filed for re-election on 14 January. Bigfork resident Doug Mahlum filed on 25 January, two days after a domain name (mahlum4montana.com) was registered. His website is not operational, and his decision to file seems to spur of the moment, raising the possibility that he’s perturbed about something and plans to use his candidacy as a soapbox for discussing his peeves. I have no problem with soapbox campaigns.
28 January 2020 — 1745 mst
Good news for Daines & GG
Montanans still like Trump, still oppose
booting him from the White House
This morning I downloaded the 26 January state-by-state Trump job approval and support for impeachment data from www.civiqs.com. Trump’s net approval is still seven points above water, while support for impeaching him (he’s impeached, so Civiqs probably is measuring support for convicting him) is 11 points underwater.
After compiling the table below, I plotted support for impeachment (removal) as a function of Trump’s job approval. Not surprisingly, support for removal is inversely related to job approval.
27 January 2020 — 1123 mst
A note on the crash that killed Kobe Bryant
Former basketball player Kobe Bryant, his 13-year-old daughter, and seven other died yesterday when the 1991 Skikorsky S-76B helicopter in which they were flying crashed in the hills north of Los Angeles.
According to California authorities, the coastal fog was so dense that the Los Angeles County Sheriff Department’s helicopters were grounded. CNN reports that air traffic control green lighted the Skikorsky’s pilot to fly in the conditions that grounded the sheriff:
A ditty and a soft stand down
Flathead Memo is standing down for a day or two while the editor and janitor tends to exigent personal matters. To help you whistle away the time until my next post, here’s a ditty on fundraising inspired by Mayor Pete’s wine cave affair and a Facebook friend’s preference for a beer cave, and set to Merle Travis’ classic ballad, Dark as a Dungeon.
Where it’s dark as the dungeon,
And damp as the dew,
Where the pilsners are plenty,
And the dark ales are few,
Where the donors are double,
And the wine doesn’t blind,
They’re raising big money,
Way down in the mine.
23 January 2020 — 1256 mst
Reilly Neill ends her campaign for governor,
vows to campaign for a healthy environment
Former legislator Reilly Neill was the first Democrat to announce for governor, filing her C-1 in early June last year. This week, having raised only a kilobuck, she became the first Democrat her campaign for governor, never having formally filed for the office with MT SecST.
Mike Cooney, Whitney Williams, and Casey Schreiner, are still campaigning for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination.
When Neill announced her candidacy, I reported:
22 January 2020 — 0744 mst
Flathead legislative filings update
Republican Rep. Carl Glimm, termed out of HD-6, filed for deep red SD-2 (Columbia Falls) yesterday, joining Norm Nunnally and Jerry O’Neil in what now is a three-man primary for an open seat. Glimm, a generation younger than the other men, probably should be considered the favorite. SD-2 may not be contested by the Democrats.
22 January 2020 — 0100 mst
Guest post by Eric Feaver
U.S. Supreme Court hears Espinoza today
Update, 1128 MST. The transcript of the oral arguments now is online.
At 0800 MST today, the U.S. Supreme Court will hear oral arguments in Espinoza v. Montana’s Department of Revenue, a case involving whether public money can be spent on sectarian schools in defiance of Montana’s constitution. Scotusblog has links to a glut of amicus briefs. Erica Green at the New York Times has a good summary of the separation of church and state issues the case raises.
The plaintiff, Kendra Espinoza, is the mother of three girls who attend Kalispell’s Stillwater Christian School. She holds down three jobs.
Below, Eric Feaver, President of the Montana Federation of Public Employees, argues that the U.S. Supreme Court should uphold the Montana Supreme Court’s decision that the law authorizing spending public money on sectarian schools did not square with Montana’s Constitution. All links in Feaver’s essay were added by Flathead Memo.
21 January 2020 — 1758 mst
Without change, our democracy dies
Impeachment of a President is a power
that cannot be exercised successfully
The Senate’s Potemkin impeachment trial of Donald Trump, in which acquittal and the suppression of evidence are preordained, proves that an election is the only practical legal means of removing a sitting President gone rogue. The Constitution’s impeachment clauses and the 25th Amendment are snares and delusions. We have no other defense against Presidents who would be kings, no practical legal way of removing a President in mid-term.
This state of affairs, inherently unstable and fraught with danger, must, sooner or later, result in the demise of democracy and the imposition of dictatorship.
As long as our chief executive is not elected by a national legislative chamber whose membership is based on one person, one vote, assassination will be the only effective means of removing a President in mid-term. Therefore, we must amend the Constitution so that the U.S. House of Representatives chooses the President. There is no other remedy for our predicament.
21 January 2020 — 1102 mst
Hillary’s vendetta against Sanders hurts Democrats
Hillary Clinton hates Bernie Sanders so much that she apparently would prefer Trump’s being re-elected to Sanders’ winning the Presidency. It’s a degree of vindictiveness that makes Lady MacBeth seem like a sweetheart of the rodeo. Her latest outbreak of unhinged spite does nothing to reassure voters that women have the temperament to be effective Presidents. She needs to go into exile and maintain absolute silence until 4 November.
21 January 2020 — 1105 mst
American men & women agree
Women handle education and health care better,
men handle national security and defense better
These finding, from the Pew Research Center’s massive (n = 4,587) Women and Leadership 2018 study, are pertinent to our presidential election, and to elections for officials responsible for education and health.
First, the numbers.
20 January 2020 — 0633 mst
Evangeline Playboy Special and We Shall Overcome
For a special reader in Great Falls — she knows who she is — the Savoy Family Cajun Band at Pontchartrain performing the toe-tappin’ Evangeline Playboy Special. Marc Savoy, educated as a chemical engineer, builds and plays the cajun-style button accordion. Sons Wilson and Joel are multi-instrument men. Ann Savoy, accomplished author and historian of cajun-zydeco music, once sang with Linda Ronstadt.
And for Martin Luther King Day observed, the Morehouse College Glee Club performing We Shall Overcome, the civil rights anthem made famous by Pete Seeger (video of Pete reflecting on the song’s history).
19 January 2020 — 1055 mst
Hundreds, not thousands, marched in
Montana to “Put a Woman in Charge”
Support for gender identity politics didn’t fizzle out completely in Montana’s women’s marches and rallies yesterday, but it glowed dimly compared to similar events in years past.
The largest marches and rallies, held in Helena and Bozeman, drew hundreds. Rallies in Hamilton and Whitefish drew 38 and 50 respectively.
18 January 2020 — 2339 mst
Baseballs, batters, buzzers, and bunko
Were unethically stolen signs relayed to Houston Astro hitters by a radio activated buzzer strapped to a batter’s arm? Yes, claim internet sleuths, relying, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan, not on hard evidence but on conjecture and convenient assumptions.
I have my doubts, but I won’t rule out the possibility.
According to most reports, cheaters in the Astros’ dugout banged on a trash can when an off-speed pitch was expected, and remained silent when a fastball had been called.
17 January 2020 — 0424 mst
Montana’s women march tomorrow —
will data journalists get accurate crowd counts?
Tomorrow, Montana’s progressive women march and rally in Helena, Bozeman, and I think, in Missoula, Hamilton, Whitefish, and perhaps elsewhere. Organizers in Kalispell and Missoula are busing marchers to Helena instead of holding local rallies.
In 2017 the reported count for the rally in Helena was 10,000, which I thought then, and still think, was too high. Now Rep. Mary Ann Dunwell claims the number actually was 15,000, but offers no evidence to support her claim.
It's an old story. Crowd inflation occurs because organizers have optimistic eyes, seldom if ever count with scientific rigor, and are predisposed to error on the high side. That’s not opinion. That’s human nature and hard fact.
FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver found that local officials’ crowd size estimates of the massive 2017 women’s marches were markedly lower than the estimates of the organizers of the events.
15 January 2020 — 1925 mst
Will Skees file for re-election?
Only one Flathead legislative district
is without an official candidate
That is SD-6, where the incumbent, Republican Al Olszewski, is running for governor. Termed-out HD-12 Republican Greg Hertz filed a C-1 for SD-6, but has not officially filed for the office.
Incumbent Republicans Matt Regier and Mark Noland filed in HD-4 and HD-10, and Republican Dee Kirk-Boon filed in HD-11, currently represented by Republican Derek Skees.
Republicans have filed in every district except HD-5 and SD-6. Democrats have filed only in HD-3 and HD-5. The Libertarian Party is qualified for the ballot, but no Libertarian has yet filed for a Flathead legislative seat.
15 January 2020 — 0306 mst
Why I turned off last night’s Democratic debate
Turning off last night’s Democratic debate was a turning point for me. Starting with the Kennedy-Nixon debates in 1960, I’ve watched virtually every presidential debate held. But last night’s debacle in Des Moines was more than I could take.
14 January 2020 — 0617 mst
Flathead legislative filings as of 605 MST today
Two Democrats and eight Republicans have filed with MT SecST for the legislative districts in Flathead County. No one has filed yet for House Districts 10 and 11, and for Senate District 6. Filing closes at 1700 on 9 March.
Below, a summary table of the filings.
12 January 2020 — 0721 mst
Guest post
$3.1 Million More For Elections
MT SecST Corey Stapleton sent out his email newsletter at 0400 today. The subject is elections, the news is interesting and important, and I’m treating his newsletter as a guest post.
11 January 2020 — 1126 mst
Debo raises $4k in 4th qtr 2019
Flathead legislative filings roundup
Revised, 12 January.
Five Republicans and two Democrats filed for Flathead legislative districts during the first two days of filings. There will be contested Republican primaries in two districts, and probably in several more by the time filing closes on 9 March. One Democratic primary is a possibility.
10 January 2020 — 0845 mst
Montana Supreme Court’s awful Watchtower
opinion subordinates state to church
The Thompson Falls Congregation of Jehovah’s Witnesses had knowledge of the sexual abuse of a child, but did not report that knowledge to Montana’s criminal justice authorities. That was just fine, dandy, and legal, ruled Montana’s Supreme Court, unanimously, because there’s a loophole in Montana's mandatory reporting law.
The facts are chilling:
9 January 2020 — 0523 mst
Possible contested legislative primaries in the Flathead
Statewide Offices
The Montana Free Press has an excellent database of statewide candidates in Montana. It’s my go to site for that set of office seekers, and I recommend it highly.
Filing for political office in Montana opens today, and closes on 9 March. In the Flathead, there may be contested primaries for both major parties, and possibly for the Libertarian Party, which is qualified for the ballot and usually receives one to six percent of the vote.
Here’s my assessment of the Flathead.
House District 3 (urban-rural, Columbia Falls, map). An open seat. Currently represented by Democrat Debo Powers who was appointed to replace three-term Democrat Zac Perry after he resigned last September. Powers is running. Fellow Democrat Sylvia Powers filed a C-1 in early November. The district is heavily Republican and may revert to red without Perry on the ballot. Expect a strong Republican to file for the seat.
8 January 2020 — 1120 mst
Trump’s speech, edited down to the essentials
President Trump’s speech on Iran this morning was mostly chest beating and bluster, delivered in his trademark showbiz prose suffused with gratuitous and cloying superlatives. He made three announcements of substance:
- No Americans or Iraqis were killed or wounded by Iran’s attack on two U.S. military bases in Iraq, and property damage was minimal.
- He’s imposing new economic sanctions on Iran that will remain in effect until Iran does his bidding.
- He wants Iran to prosper and be at peace with the world
Below, a transcript of his speech showing what could and should have been deleted.
8 January 2020 — 0858 mst
Update: Trudeau says Iran shot down the jet
An airliner crashes in Iran
Update, 9 January. According to the New York Times, a U.S. surveillance satellite recorded the launch of two surface to air missiles, one of which hit the 737. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says he believes the airline was shot down by accident, but is awaiting additional confirmation. If indeed a SAM did bring down the jetliner, Iran’s only option is immediately and fully coming clean, admitting to the mistake, and taking its lumps. Whether the ayatollahs will have the smarts to do that remains to be seen.
♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦
A Ukraine International Airlines Boeing 737-800 climbing out of Tehran’s airport suddenly lost altitude and crashed at approximately 0618 Tehran time, killing all 176 passengers and crew. Witnesses report that an engine was on fire.The flight data and cockpit voice recorders have been found and will be analyzed by a competent authority, but, the Guardian reports, not by Boeing or the United States.
There’s a lot of speculation on the internet that the aircraft was brought down by some nefarious action. Although that cannot, and should not, be ruled out at this time, there’s no evidence to support that theory.
The aircraft was serviced a couple of days ago. If an engine was serviced incorrectly, that could result in an uncontained engine failure. Another possibility: during the takeoff and climb out in the dark, an engine ingested a foreign object.
I’m going to go out on a limb and predict that the investigation will be thorough, professional, and not fatally politicized. Determining the cause of the crash is in everyone’s enlightened self-interest.
8 January 2020 — 0512 mst
A bronze age photograph from 1990
Thirty years ago, for the long defunct Flathead Business Journal, I wrote a story on the bronze casting industry in the Flathead. It was growing rapidly, making the Flathead one of the west’s centers for bronzed western art. The assignment required photographing a bronze pour, a fascinating, colorful, and somewhat dangerous process. I wore the same kind of heat attenuating gear as the foundry worker in this photograph, and still remember how much heat the molten metal radiated.
Flathead Beacon photographer Hunter D’Antuono’s richly colored and exquisitely composed images of blacksmith Scott Joram Sweder hammering orange-hot steel into a knife reminded me of both that decades ago bronze pour, and of the advances in photographic technology over that time. I used a Nikon FE2 and T-Max 3200 film, but the brightness range of the subject was wider than the film could record. The shadows are dark, yet the highlights are blown. Today’s digital cameras have considerably more dynamic range and, as D’Antuono’s luminous photographs prove, can hold the highlights.
D’Antuono has a better camera than I had. He also has a better eye.
7 January 2020 — 1936 mst
Political roundup
Whitney Williams raised most of her money outside Montana
Democratic candidate for governor Whitney Williams, who has spent most of her adult life outside Montana, raised approximately $430k in the last quarter of 2019. Three quarters of that came from donors outside Montana, but she had slightly more donors in Montana.
My preliminary analysis indicates an average in-state donation of ≈ $210, and an average out-of-state donation of ≈ $390. The maximum contribution to a candidate for governor is $710 per election.
Her 2019 fourth quarter haul is impressive, but she’ll need to do better to win the general election if she wins the nomination. I think the Democratic candidate will need at least $4 million to be competitive, and more, much more, would be better.
The likely Republican nominee, Greg Gianforte, has very deep pockets, and his party, hungry for the governorship, and sensing the voters may be ready for a change after 16 years of Democratic governors Schweitzer and Bullock, will be able to raise millions.
Incidentally, the campaign finance database at Montana’s Commissioner of Political Practices, remains as user hostile and kludgey as usual. The CSV files I downloaded last night used “|” as delimiters, not commas. That may, as Mike Miller contends, be consistent with RFC 4180 (I disagree with Mike on that), but it’s not good practice by any reasonable standard.No one — especially the good people at COPP — likes the system, which needs to be replaced with something more user friendly.
7 January 2020 — 1115 mst
Prediction: the 2020 Census will report that
18 eastern Montana counties lost population
Montana’s population is growing, perhaps enough that Montana will gain a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives when Congress is reapportioned after the 2020 Census. But many areas in eastern Montana are losing population, both in absolute as well as relative terms, as western Montana becomes more populous. This will shift the locus of power in Montana’s legislature west after redistricting is completed next year.
5 January 2020 — 0935 mst
A rough beast occupies the White House — has
his middle east blunder unleashed the dogs of war?
Probably not the dogs of World War III, and, one hopes, not the dogs of full scale war with Iran. But President Trump’s reckless assassination of a replaceable Iranian general will result in the deaths of members of our armed services. Whether the assassination was legal is of secondary importance to the fact it was a mistake.
Behind the headlines, the dread of Yeats throbs in flaming letters.
4 January 2020 — 1637 mst
Trump plays whack-a-mole with the Iranian military
Blowing up Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, a thug whose death may improve humankind, does not diminish Iran’s ability to make mischief. Generals are replaceable; militaries are designed that way. But it does put a bullseye on the back of every American two-star.
When Trump took the oath of office, relations with Iran were improving. An imperfect yet serviceable nuclear stand down agreement put a halt to an arms race, at least temporarily, and provided a foundation for building a less hostile relationship with that nation. With one reckless act after another, Trump has reversed all progress in lessening tensions with Iran, bringing us ever closer to a shooting war with a large and dangerous nation. He has not articulated a coherent, convincing, argument that his Iranian policy makes anyone better off, and seems oblivious to the risks he’s taking.
The history of this foreign policy malpractice will be written in the blood of young Americans who died following orders that were stupid and dangerous.
3 January 2020 — 0813 mst
Meet the Big Sky Purplemander — a devious delight of
devilish districting that just might win bipartisan support
If Montana secures a second seat in the U.S. House of Representatives, could the communities of De Borgia, Troy, Kalispell, Plentywood, Ekalaka, Billings, and Gardiner, all end up in the same Congressional district?
Yes — and the question is not mere speculation.
My sources advise me that Democratic heavyweights in the blue polygon of Helena, Great Falls, Bozeman, Butte, and Missoula, are seriously considering lobbying Montana’s redistricting commission, which may lean Democratic, to draw one deep red Republican district, and one bluish Democratic district, rather than drawing two balanced, competitive, districts that could both fall to the Republicans in a red tide election.
2 January 2020 — 1553 mst
Projections of Montana’s population to 1 April 2020 vary
On New Year’s Eve, the U.S. Census Bureau released its population estimates for 1 July 2019. Montana’s population has increased to the point where it may be allocated a second seat when the U.S. House of Representatives is reapportioned next year.
The key word is “may.” The new estimates come with a lot of caveats, most of which have not been addressed in depth by news reports on the possibility of gaining a second seat.
The estimate is an estimate, not a hard and fast number based on a definitive count.
1 January 2020 — 1701 mst
Montana’s Democrats hire Sandi Luckey
as their new executive director
Luckey, a Helena based labor organizer who was serving as the MDP’s treasurer, replaces Monica Lindeen, the former state legislator and auditor who served as executive director for one year. Luckey’s hiring was announced this afternoon in a cheerleader genre press release (below) that waved the flag and blew the horn, but omitted her age, her education, her campaign experience, and a mug shot photograph. Perhaps that information will be provided tomorrow.
Luckey’s job will be difficult. After the 2016 debacle, Democrats hold only one partisan statewide Montana office: governor. Gov. Steve Bullock is termed out. Holding the governorship, the MDP’s top priority, may require a political miracle: President Trump’s job approval rating in Montana remains over 50 percent, the major Republican candidate for governor are experienced and well-funded, and except for aging Mike Cooney, the Democrats seeking the job have not been battle tested in statewide elections.
1 January 2020
Sizzlin’ Cajun fiddlin’ for a sloppy New Year’s Day
Happy New Year!, readers. In Kalispell, Old Man Winter is kicking off the decade with weather that’s windy, and too warm and wet for a northern Rockies morning in January. Therefore, Flathead Memo’s old editor and janitor suggests kicking off your shoes, tossing down a hot buttered rum, turning up the audio, and dancing away the effects of last night’s celebrating.