Self-deception perpetuates pandemics

Magical thinking: guest post by Mary Sheehy Moe

Mary Sheehy Moe is a retired schoolteacher, higher education administrator, and former legislator, writing from Great Falls.

I’m just going to blurt it right out: Call off on-campus schooling for the foreseeable future. There is no way, in the throes of a pandemic, you can protect the safety of all the people in the school environment and all the people they go home to on a daily basis AND retain the advantages of in-class instruction. Yes, remote learning is not the same. But neither is what we’re planning, and all these labor-intensive exercises charting out inane details cannot blot out the big picture we’ll do anything NOT to see: We are stuck in this time and space. There is no new normal. It is what it is: a pandemic.

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As a general rule, the legal but stupid things one did in
high school should not be hanging offenses a decade later

But in the precincts of political correctness in today’s progressive politics, they are. The latest victim is Evan McCullers, hired in June, and fired in July, as the deputy press secretary for Steve Bullock’s senatorial campaign.

McCullers’ offense? Tweets from his high school days (2012–2014), denigrating women and homosexuals, that were unearthed by the Washington Free Beacon, a conservative publication not averse to dumping dirt on Democratic candidates and their staff.

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Flathead Memo’s future is bright

Thanks to the generosity of its readers, Flathead Memo met its short term hosting obligations. Thank you. Now the Memo begins a program of steady improvements, many under the hood, that heretofore were not possible. As this program moves foreward, your ideas are both welcome and critical. Let me hear from you. — James Conner

Canceling a county fair is like canceling Christmas

Will the Northwest Montana Fair
become a Covid super spreader event?

I think there’s a high probability it will — and that holding the fair during the worst pandemic in a century, efforts to mitigate exposure to the virus notwithstanding, is not a risk worth taking.

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Covid-19 cases in Montana are increasing, but our state
still has one of the nation’s lowest infection rates

The Covid-19 cases per 1,000 persons statistic allows large jurisdictions to be compared meaningfully with small jurisdictions. In the first two plots below, I’ve used it to compare Montana to the rest of the nation, and the counties of Montana with each other. These plots are based on the cumulative count of Covid-19 cases. A plot based on the average daily count for the last week would be somewhat different.

Montana’s infection rate is 3.0 cases per 1,000 persons, lower than all states but Hawaii and Vermont. The national rate is 12.5/k, and some states have rates above 20/k.

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How Flathead Memo will stay online

Many of you have offered to help keep Flathead Memo online. Beginning sometime Friday, there will be a way to do that.

I apologize for the delay. I had planned putting the crowd funding mechanism in place two days ago, but an untoward event changed the timeline. Privacy concerns prevent me from elaborating.

Again, thank you for your interest and support. I’m looking forward to a steady and improved online presence, a presence made possible, and made better, by your generosity and ideas.

— James Conner

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The sinner in chief comes to Jesus … lately

Trump blesses face masks and staying out of saloons,
but still refuses to issue a national mask-up mandate

Yesterday, at his first coronavirus briefing in months, President Trump, reports the New York Times:

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Crowd sourced reports on Montana’s compliance
with Governor Bullock’s mask-up directive

Montana’s governor, Steve Bullock, resisted issuing a mask-up mandate because, the AP’s Iris Samuels and Matthew Brown reported, he feared …

Finally, the dramatic increase in number of new Covid-19 cases (see graphs below), and, I suspect, the state’s effective reproduction rate (Rt) of 1.3+, one of the nation’s highest, left him no choice. On the morning of 15 July, MT DPHHS reported 146 new cases for 14 July. Six hours later, Bullock issued a directive mandating masking-up in indoor spaces open to the public, and in certain outdoor situations, in counties with four or more active cases.

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Thanks to reader support, Flathead Memo will stay online

Thanks, and double thanks, to all who offered to help Flathead Memo obtain the resources to stay online.

Here’s what’ happening. A small team working with me will set up a crowd funding mechanism for Flathead Memo. It will have a budget, proper accounting controls, and probably an advisory board.

I’ll have more announcement next week. Again, thank you for your support and your generous offers of help. — James Conner

Montana’s convoluted system for dispensing Covid-19 data

Every morning, a few minutes after ten o’clock, I receive an email from Montana’s Joint Information Center. It contains information on Covid-19 cases reported the previous day. Here’s a screenshot from yesterday’s email, which reported 109 new Covid-19 cases in Montana:

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This month could be the last month

Flathead Memo’s uncertain future

Flathead Memo’s independence derives from independent funding; my funding. Fortunately, the cost of keeping Flathead Memo on the internet has not been burdensome — until now. What has changed? My medical expenses. Although Medicare covers kidney dialysis, it does not cover all the expenses of surviving kidney failure. Those extra expenses come out of my pocket, the same pocket that supplies the funding for Flathead Memo. That pocket is almost empty. What’s left in it must pay for medical and associated necessities, not the server hosting fees due at the end of July. Therefore, it is increasingly likely that Flathead Memo will disappear in approximately two weeks, and that resurrecting the website may not be possible. — James Conner

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Canceling a county fair is like canceling Christmas

Will the Northwest Montana Fair
become a Covid super spreader event?

I think there’s a high probability it will — and that holding the fair during the worst pandemic in a century, efforts to mitigate exposure to the virus notwithstanding, is not a risk worth taking.

…read the rest

The case for mandatory masking-up

Montana is reopening not because the coronavirus pandemic is over — it isn’t; in fact, in some places it’s getting worse — but because we’ve learned how to reduce the risk of infection through social distancing, wearing face masks, and abjuring dangerous practices such as singing in the choir. If those and other mitigation measures are observed by everyone, and with iron discpline, businesses. schools, and activities such as sports, that were shut down can resume without igniting a wildfire of contagion.

But too many Montanans and visitors to our state scoff at these best practices and conduct themselves as though Mr. Covid is dead. They evidently consider wearing masks and practicing social distancing as discretionary activities, as personal choices, and not as public obligations, as duties required of citizens.

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Voluntary face masks is a failed policy

Most customers in most Montana stores do not comply
with social distancing traffic controls or wear face masks

Interesting in shopping safely? Go to Costco. You can’t enter the store unless you’re wearing a mask. And if you “forget” your mask, the helpful gatekeepers will provide one for you. Once in the building, few revert to barefaced defiance.

Across Highway 93, at Walmart, it’s a different story. Friday evening the store was at capacity. I had to wait for someone to exit before I could enter. Credit Walmart for enforcing its capacity. Once in the store, I found the employees were masked — and that most of the customers were not. Some of the barefaced attempted to maintain a social distance, but most just concentrated on shopping, going the wrong way on clearly marked one-way aisles, and getting as close to you as necessary to grab a can of beans.

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Independence Day Greeting

Happy Independence Day! … Monday, I’ll be back to blogging.

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