The Flathead Valley’s Leading Independent Journal of Observation, Analysis, & Opinion

 

3 November 2010

Preliminary thoughts on the general election of 2010

My congratulations to yesterday’s winner in Flathead County, and my thanks to all the Democrats who stood for election in this deep red valley, fine men and women who knew they were bucking the odds but who also understand that democracy works best when the voters have a choice.

The Republican onslaught was not a surprise. Shortly after the polls closed, I said to a friend, “If Brenneman gets clobbered, Democrats will lose every election in Flathead County.” He got clobbrered, and Republicans ran the table here by margins of 3:2 and 2:1. Only HD-4 (Whitefish), where Derek Skees won by 87 votes, was close.

The social contract implicit in a Democracy requires that we respect every citizen’s right to vote for the candidate of his choice. But it does not require that we respect all of the choices that are made. Sometimes, voters get it wrong — and that’s what happened when Brenneman, a solid, principled, well educated, experienced, and accomplished commissioner was replaced by Pam Holmquist, whose resume and skills are much weaker.

That Brenneman was elected in the first place was something of an anomaly. The Republican candidate for county commissioner was Denise Cofer, one of the Sharron Angles of her time. Moderate Republicans, some now dead, slammed her as too extreme in a series of full-page ads in local newspapers, and urged people to vote for Brenneman. The ads did the job, but Brenneman won by less than 200 votes.

Pam Holmquist, by conrast, did not generate the fears that Cofer generated, and 2010’s ads from the moderate Republicans were positive, pro-Brenneman messages that did not generate doubts about Holmquist. Republicans stayed home with Holmquist instead of defecting to Brenneman. So the outcome, while a disappointment, was no surprise.

But Derek Skees’ victory in HD-4 was a bit of a surprise.

HD-4, comprising two urban and three rural precincts in and adjacent to Whitefish, was the most interesting election in Flathead County, pitting Flathead reared Will Hammerquist, a business friendly Democrat, against Derek Skees, a tea party Republican with some revisionist views on the origin of the Civil War. Although the district’s demographics favor Democrats — local farmer and Democrat Mike Jopek won the district in 2004, 2006, and 2008 — Hammerquist did not have the advantage of incumbency. And third parties on the right spent thousands and thousands of dollars on ugly anti-Hammerquist advertisements and literature delivered by mail. That mud slinging took a toll, and those who slung it will sling even more in 2012.

Hammerquist won the urban, but lost the rural, precincts. He also received more votes cast by absentee ballots than did Skees, but received 188 fewer votes than Skees on 2 November, the Last Day of Voting.

Hammer-
quist
Skees
PRECINCT 20297232
PRECINCT 44400634
PRECINCT 46286303
PRECINCT 47427271
PRECINCT 48439496
TOTAL1,8491,936

Excel spreadsheet with precinct tallies.

Hammerquist ran a clean yet aggressive campaign. He has a future in Montana politics.

Skees’ adventures in the legislature will receive close scrutiny. Will he try to nullify Federal legislation? Or, recognizing that he represents everyone in HD-4, will he move toward the center and make the accommodations that successful lawmaking requires?

Coda. As I was walking into Costco last week, I ran into Skees on his way out. He grabbed my hand and said, “I want to thank you for not being anonymous.” As he left, he said, “We’re going to try to surprise you next Tuesday.” He did.