The Flathead Valley’s Leading Independent Journal of Observation, Analysis, & Opinion

 

11 February 2011

Oregon voter turnout 1980 – 2000

In 2000, Oregon’s voters approved a referendum that switched the state to an all mail ballot system. Supporters of vote-by-mail argued that Oregon’s turnout increased after the all mail ballot system was adopted, citing the turnout of registered voters to support their claim.

Registered voter turnout, however, is the wrong statistic for assessing voting systems policy. The proper statistic is the turnout of the voting eligible population (the voting age population minus ineligibles such as incarcerated felons and resident aliens). Since registered voters is a subset of VEP, the VEP turnout is almost always lower that the turnout of registered voters. For example, suppose that a state has a VEP of one million, but just 100,000 registered voters. If 90,000 vote, the registered voter turnout is 90 percent — but the VEP turnout is just nine percent.

The four graphs below display both registered voter and VEP turnout for Oregon for 1980 – 2010. VEP turnout was up ever so slightly in presidential years after the switch to mandatory mail ballots, and down slightly in non-presidential years. The differences are so small that local factors, not the switch to vote-by-mail, could account for the difference.


Figure 2


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Figure 3


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Figure 4


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