Filing for the 2012 election closed yesterday, with some last minute surprises. I've provided links to the candidates’s websites I could find. I’ll update the page as more information becomes available.
Senate District 2. David Fern, a long time member of the Whitefish school board, is the sole Democrat. The Republicans are Bill Beck, currently representing HD-6, former HD-3 representative Dee Brown, and Suzanne Brooks, who challenged Ryan Zinke in 2008. Zinke is trying to move up to Lt. Governor, running with Neil Livingstone. I think Beck has a slight advantage in the primary, and in the general.
Senate District 3. Incumbent Republican Bruce Tutvedt now has two primary challengers: Dr. Rollan Roberts II, and Jayson Peters of Lakeside. Shannon D. Hanson of Whitefish is the sole candidate for the Democratic nomination for SD-3. Tutvedt will prevail in both the primary and the general.
House District 3, Columbia Falls. No primary challenges. Republican incumbent Jerry O’Neil filed for re-election. He’ll be opposed again by Democrat Zac Perry who has an even chance of winning provided he runs a more aggressive campaign than he did two years ago. Libertarian Shawn Guymon will received 200–300 votes, mostly from O’Neil.
House District 4, Whitefish. Ed Lieser and Tom Muri (personal Facebook page) are vying for the Democratic nomination, with Lieser much more active than Muri. Expect Lieser to win the nomination. On the GOP ballot, Tim Baldwin is being challenged by Walter E. Keathley, who threw his hat in the ring at the last moment. Baldwin will earn the nomination. In the general, all things being equal, Lieser should win.
Note. Baldwin, incidentally, did not swap districts with Dr. Rollan Roberts II, initial indications to the contrary. Roberts did file for, then withdraw from, HD-4, but there was no coordination between Roberts and Baldwin. And while Tim Baldwin is indeed the son of colorful preacher Chuck Baldwin, I have the distinct impression that Tim Baldwin is his own man, and is no more the puppet of Chuck Baldwin than John F. Kennedy was the puppet of Joe Kennedy, the elder Kennedy’s attempts to pull strings notwithstanding.
House District 5. Rural north Kalispell. This is a rerun of 2010. Neither Republican incumbent Keith Regier nor Democratic challenger James Mahnke has primary opposition. Regier will win the general.
House District 6. West of Kalispell and Whitefish. Open seat, thanks to Beck’s decision to run in SD-3, and irredeemably Republican. Neither Republican Carl Glimm nor Democrat Brenda Talbot have primary opposition. Glimm, who lost a primary challenge Steve Lavin in HD-8 in 2010 (YouTube video from that race) will win in November.
House District 7. North Kalispell, generally suburban and deeply Republican. Both Republican incumbent Randy Brodehl and Democratic challenger Diane Taylor are unopposed. Expect Brodehl to win in November.
House District 8. Old Kalispell. Incumbent Republican Steve Lavin is unopposed for the GOP nomination. Democrat Brittany MacLean, who won the Democratic primary in SD-2 in 2008, is unopposed for the Democratic nomination. In theory, HD-8 is a swing district — Democrat Cheryl Steenson won in 2008 — but it seems to be drifting rightward. Lavin is a political natural with formidable campaigning skills. Bet on Lavin, but not by much.
House District 9. Evergreen and points southeast. Frank Mutch of Polson is challenging incumbent Scott M. Reichner of Bigfork for the GOP nomination. Democrat Rodrik Brosten is unopposed for his party’s nomination. Expect Reichner to prevail in the primary and general.
House District 10. South of Kalispell; Somers, Lakeside. No primary contests. Republican incumbent Mark Blasdel filed for re-election. Democrat Alexander William Schaeffer will be the Democratic nominee. Blasdel will win the general.