The Flathead Valley’s Leading Independent Journal of Observation, Analysis, & Opinion. © James R. Conner.


5 November 2012

Average of late October polls gives Bullock a 1.7 percent lead

The average of late October polls of likely voters puts Steve Bullock and Rick Hill in a functional tie — Bullock leads by 1.7 percent. There is, however, considerable volatility in the numbers. One of the most recent polls, conducted for the Lee newspapers by the Mason-Dixon firm, put Hill ahead by three points; another, conducted by the Mellman Group, using a larger sample, put Bullock ahead by seven points with 10 percent undecided. The probability that Bullock is leading Hill is 83 percent.

Below, two graphs. The first presents the overview for September–October. The second presents a high resolution view of Bullock’s lead over Hill. In this graph, a lead can be a negative number.