Sandy Welch is running for state superintendent of public instruction, which is no surprise. According to the Montanastreetfighter, she filed a C-1 statement of candidacy with Montana’s office of political practices on 19 January 2013. This allows her to begin fundraising, but it is not the same as filing for office; she won’t be able to do that until January, 2016.
I think Welch has at least an even chance of winning. She lost to Denise Juneau last November by just over 2,000 votes. Thanks to Montana’s stupid and irresponsible term limits, Juneau cannot run for re-election, so the office will be open. Welch starts with an advantage in name recognition, and will gain more recognition with her role in the Responsible Republicans’ campaign to pass an initiative restricting dark money. She’ll also gain more experience in campaigning statewide.
Welch’s credentials for the job strike me as thin, but one can make the case that she’s qualified (certainly not as qualified as Juneau, which is why Juneau was re-elected). I disagree with her politics — she’s a Republican, and there are no longer any progressive Republicans — but she’s intelligent and has more than mean political skills. Democrats who dismiss her for her views on policy make a mistake if they also dismiss her as an incompetent politician.
(See also Don Pogreba’s remarks on Welch’s candidacy at Intelligent Discontent.)
Welch is part of the Montana GOP’s plan to take control of the state lands board in 2016. Right now, Democrats (Governor Bullock, Secretary of State McCulloch, Insurance Commissioner Lindeen, and OPI chief Juneau) hold a 4–1 margin on the board, with Attorney General Fox casting the sole Republican vote. Only two incumbents on the board will be running for re-election in 2016: Bullock and Fox. McCulloch, Lindeen, and Juneau are termed-out, leaving three seats open. Bullock and Fox, both incumbents, will be favored to win re-election, but only Fox won with a majority in 2012.
Part of the GOP plan is passing in 2014 a legislative referendum (SB-408) establishing a top-two primary system in Montana, thereby removing third parties — in particular, the Libertarians — from the general election ballot starting in 2016. Although McCulloch, Lindeen, and Juneau won with majorities, Bullock could only muster a plurality in 2012, and might have lost to Republican Rick Hill had not Libertarian Ron Vandevender received 18,160 votes. Bullock will have the advantage of incumbency in 2016, but that might not be enough to win if Montana is condemned to a top-two primary and Republicans run a credible candidate for Governor.
The lands board is up for grabs in 2016, which is why Welch is already running for OPI again, and why it’s the smart thing for her to do.