What disturbed me most about Brian Schweitzer’s sudden and unexpected decision not to run for the U.S. Senate was how quickly he struck his tent and walked away instead of holding his ground and fighting back when his enemies, Republican and Democratic, started taking pot shots at him last week. He’s clearly lost the hunger that spurred him to victory in 2004 and 2008, and no longer has the heart to defend himself. Worst of all, it’s possible he did something for which there is no defense, and was arrogant enough to think he could get away with it, in which case he ill served Montana’s Democrats in a way best described with words that would make a mule skinner blush.
His departure almost certainly ensures that Montana’s next U.S. Senator will be Republican Steve Daines, and increases the probability that the GOP will control the U.S. Senate in January, 2015. And Daines will be the nominee; brush aside that nonsense that 66-year-old Marc Racicot will enter the contest.
Democratic leaders are, of course, reacting to Schweitzer’s exit by confidently asserting, with remarkably straight faces, that there are plenty of Montana Democrats who would make good U.S. Senators. Which is true — but not one of those Democrats has Schweitzer’s credibility with the guns-in-pickups folks who vote against their economic self-interest because they consider Democrats socialistic wimps who will confiscate their firearms and give their hard earned money to no-good welfare bums. Schweitzer’s folksy style transcended political stereotypes, allowing him to convince cultural conservatives that their enlightened economic self-interest was served best by Democratic policies. No other Montana Democrat has that knack.
There’s already a move on to draft Denise Juneau, Montana’s young, smart superintendent of public instruction. Linda McCulloch and Emily’s list executive Stephanie Schriock, have been mentioned, the latter by people with ties to the “Schweitzer stinks” operatives in Baucus’ machine. State auditor Monica Lindeen has already said she won’t run. The New York Times mentioned Juneau, Lindeen, Schriock, Montana Supreme Court Justice Brian Morris, and Billings State Senator Kendell Van Dyk. I don’t yet know enough about Morris to evaluate his prospects, but I do think that Van Dyk, despite his relative youth, matches up against Daines better than Juneau, Schriock, or McCulloch.
In fact, I don’t think any Democratic woman can beat Daines, especially in a midterm election. In my judgment, Montana’s electorate is predisposed, and by no small margin, to send men to Washington. Whether that’s morally good or bad is beside the point. That predisposition is a political fact that Democrats who really want to win must take into account when they choose their nominee next spring. Gender identity politics, which poisoned last year’s inconclusive Democratic primary for the U.S. House, is now the greatest threat to Democrats’ holding onto the seat that Max Baucus is vacating.
For wasting time that Democrats needed and now can’t recover, Schweitzer deserves a double-damned hard swift kick in his southern exposure. There was a small movement — Montana Wants Brian — over the weekend to persuade him to reconsider, but it will die out by the end of the week. Time runs forward only.
Moreover, even if Schweitzer reconsidered, he would appear weak and irresolute. He’s out of the picture for the senate, finished as a politician in Montana, and now a very unlikely choice for the White House or a Democratic cabinet post. He was a good governor. Now he’s just another rancher. I thank him for governing well, wish him prosperity and laughter — and bid him a goodbye that’s not as fond as I wish it could be.