Not all Democrats were overjoyed by my conclusion that Jon Tester was/is a weak candidate and campaigner, but the numbers don’t lie: Tester was the weakest of the five Democrats who won statewide offices in Montana in November, 2012.
Although more votes were cast for the U.S. Senate than for any other office, a rarity, Tester ranked fourth in total votes received, fifth in percentage of the votes received, and along with gubernatorial candidate Steve Bullock, won with a plurality, not a majority. Indeed, on a percentage basis, Tester did slightly worse in 2012 than he did in 2006.
Equally important, Tester ran 19,365 votes behind Republican Steve Daines, who replaced Denny Rehberg in the U.S. House, handily sweeping aside an overmatched Kim Gillan. Daines may not seem that formidable to other Democrats, but to Tester, haunted by pluralities, he apparently appears as frightening as a rabid grizzly snarling atop a mountain of greenbacks.
None of this should surprise anyone. In April, 2012, I wrote:
A new Rasmussen Poll reports that Republican Rep. Denny Rehberg leads incumbent Democrat Sen. Jon Tester by three points. This is consistent with other polling results over the last 18 months. Tester is in trouble with the voters, and no amount of partisan spin-doctoring can obscure the facts.
Toward the end of September, Rehberg began to stumble, falling behind Tester. Exasperated conservatives abandoned Rehberg for Libertarian Dan Cox, who received a surprising 6.56 percent of the vote.
A similar outcome is possible in 2018, but only if the top two primary referendum fails in November, 2014. If the top two passes, as I fear it will, Tester will need a majority to win a third term in 2018.
Mustering a majority, however, is something Tester has now failed to do twice, and may prove something he’s incapable of doing. That’s why he’s already running scared for 2018, willing to do pretty much anything to survive.
