Serving the Flathead Valley & Montana since 2006. A reality based independent journal of observation & analysis. © James Conner.

 

24 December 2013

John Lewis may have better chance than conventional wisdom suggests

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Montana’s Democrats used to win elections for the U.S. House of representatives with some regularity. From 1920 through 1990, Democrats held a 31-5 margin in western congressional district elections, while Republicans held a 24-12 margin in eastern district elections. Montanans cast 4.6 million votes for Democratic congressional candidates, 4.1 million for Republican candidates. Western Montana was deep blue, eastern Montana reddish purple, and by a three to one margin, Montana sent Democrats to the House. (Download 1920–2012 MT U.S. House elections spreadsheet.)

Then Montana’s political world reversed poles. The 1990 Census cost Montana one of its two seats in the House. Montana became a single district state in 1992. And four years later, Montana Democrats became extinct in the U.S. House.

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PDF for printing.

Values above zero percent represent Democratic victories; values below represent Republican victories.

Since Pat Williams won his last election in 1994, no Democratic candidate has won Montana’s lone seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. Nor has any Democrat received a majority of the vote since 1992, when Williams received 50.5 percent of the vote to Republican Ron Marlenee’s 47 percent and Libertarian J.J. Wilverding’s 2.5 percent.

Nancy Keenan came the closest of Democratic candidates after Williams, with 46.3 percent of the vote in 2000, followed by Dusty Deschamps with 44.4 percent in 1998, Bill Yellowtail with 43.2 percent in 1996, and Kim Gillan with 42.6 percent in 2012. All but Deschamps ran for open seats.

But between Keenan and Gillan, all Democrats seeking the seat were trounced. And some — especially John Driscoll, who didn’t campaign — were trounced so soundly it must (and in Driscoll’s case, should) still hurt. Their campaigns were woefully funded — Driscoll’s was literally unfunded — and written off by Montana’s Democratic Party as unimportant and lost causes.

In 2012, the party’s indifference led to the confused, seven-candidate 2012 U.S. House Democratic primary that nominated Kim Gillan with less than one-third of the vote. Gillan, spunky but hurting for money, and not equipped with a primary mandate, was not really a good statewide candidate.

Nevertheless, she was the first Democrat since Keenan to receive over 40 percent of the vote. Might a stronger Democratic candidate, well funded and solidly backed by his party, have beaten Steve Daines?

With the seat open again in 2014, we’re about to find out. Montana’s Democrats are finally getting behind a House candidate — 35-year-old John Lewis, former state director for Sen. Max Baucus — well in advance of the election. So far, he’s received endorsements from Montana Gov. Steve Bullock, Sen. Jon Tester, his old boss, Max Baucus, and Local 190 of the International Brotherhood of Teamsters.

Significantly, no viable primary challenger has emerged. The 2014 Democratic primary for the U.S. House won’t be another seven-donkey disaster (this time, it’s the Republicans who suffer from a glut of candidates). Seasoned soapbox candidate Melinda Gopher, who had announced she would challenge Lewis, now says she’ll instead run for the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate. Someone, perhaps another soapbox candidate, likely will challenge Lewis for the nomination. That’s far from a bad thing as it would give Lewis a tune-up race, and help him with fundraising.

Lewis needs to raise at least $4 million

Equally important, he’s raising serious money. According to some reports, he’s aiming for $2 million, but that won’t be enough. Nancy Keenan raised $1.9 million in 2000, which is $2.6 million in 2012 dollars. The next two graphs display the amount of money raised by the major party House campaigns from 2000 through 2012, first in current (actual) dollars, second in 2012 dollars using the Consumer Price Index.


By another measure, Keenan raised $3.86 per voting eligible Montanan. There are one hundred thousand more voting eligible Montanans today than in 2000, so equaling Keenan’s total for VEMs in 2014 requires at least $3 million. But Lewis needs to do better than that. I think he needs at least $4 million, and probably $5 million to have a bona fide chance of winning.

By all accounts, Lewis has a natural political personality. He’s smart and informed. He works hard. People like him, and his connections within the Democratic Party inspire confidence in party leaders and donors. He’s assembled an experienced campaign staff. Montana’s Democrats have decided it’s once again important to send a Democrat to the U.S. House. Above all, he’s hungry and hard on the hunt. Does have chance of winning? You bet he does — and I think it’s a much better chance than the conventional wisdom accords him.