Serving the Flathead Valley & Montana since 2006. A reality based independent journal of observation & analysis. © James Conner.
This is the longest week of John Walsh’s campaign. Monday, 11 August, is the last day he can withdraw as the Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate. After that, he’s on the ballot whether or not the Army War College strips him of his masters degree.
Meanwhile, he’s lost the support of Montana’s two largest newspapers, the Billings Gazette and the sometimes more liberal Missoulian, plus the Great Falls Tribune and Kalispell’s Daily InterLake. He’s also lost the support of influential left-leaning Missoulian columnist George Ochenski.
Polls conducted at the end of July and later should be released late this week. I think they will report considerable erosion in support for Walsh, and Daines’ support firming-up a few points north of 50 percent. That will hurt fundraising and demoralize Democrats, further reducing the odds that he can win — odds that were already very low.
Because something — don’t ask me what — could happen, there’s always a chance Walsh could win if he stays on the ballot. If he withdraws, there’s no reason to expect that a replacement would do better. I cannot think of a election in which a scandal blackened candidate for the U.S. Senate who withdrew from the ballot two months before voting started was won by his replacement.
Would Walsh’s continued presence on the ballot hurt down-ticket Democrats, especially U.S. House candidate John Lewis? It would’t help these candidates, but it might not hurt them, either. And there’s no guarantee a replacement would help down-ticket Democrats.
As a battle hardened and decorated veteran of Iraq, Walsh is not a man to cut and run at the first whiff of gunsmoke. I think he’ll stay on the ballot. But I’ve no doubt he’s weighing his options. It’s his decision to make, and his decision alone.
Below, Elephant Revival and Jimmy LeFave performing Lonesome Valley. Bonnie Paine plays the washboard. Bridget Law plays the electric fiddle.