Serving the Flathead Valley & Montana since 2006. A reality based independent journal of observation & analysis. © James Conner.

 

12 August 2014

Is Amanda Curtis’ U.S. Senate nomination a done deal?

It sure looks like it. If not completely locked down, it’s very close to being so. An 11 August story by Mike Dennison reports that the 34-year-old math teaching legislator has the backing of the powerful MEA-MFT.

She’ll also have strong support from those women in the party for whom nothing is more important than gender identity politics.

Dave Wanzenried, 65, and Dirk Adams, 63, still express an interest in the nomination. Both have strong resumés But I don’t think they have much of a chance of beating Curtis.

If nominated, Curtis has little chance of beating Daines, who has a huge head start, millions in cash, and a nice guy personality that creates a reality distortion zone around his tea party politics. But she could travel around the state, waving the progressive flag, gaining experience and exposure that would serve her well in a campaign to succeed Denise Juneau as chief of Montana’s Office of Public Instruction. She might inspire midterm Democratic stay-at-homes to actually vote, which would be a great help down ticket.

Republican Sandy Welch, who came within 2,000 votes of Juneau in 2012, has already announced she’ll run for the position again. Democrats will need a very strong candidate to beat her.

The MEA-MFT’s support would give Curtis an instant statewide political network and the ability to quickly raise enough money to campaign. Of the other candidates, only Dirk Adams could raise money quickly, by self-funding. The MEA-MFT, and other unions, will of course support the Democratic nominee, but MEA-MFT members will give more money and knock on more doors for one of their own.

I doubt the Democratic Party’s honchos — the ones who recruited John Walsh and thought they could finesse his weaknesses — want a bona fide open convention; just a convention that appears open. They want a convention that ratifies the choice they’ve made in advance. Then they’ll expect the rank-and-file to support the annointed, just like they did with John Walsh. If so, that will be a tougher sell than it was in January.

I don’t know Amanda Curtis; never met her. She’s smart, enthusiastic, and green as Ireland after a spring rain. What little I know of her I like. But that’s an observation, not an endorsement.

But I do know this for sure: if she’s nominated, as I think she will be, we’ll know there’s a generational change in Montana’s political guard.

Morning video: Union Maid

Woody Guthrie’s rousing song of solidarity, sung at a concert for the late Pete Seeger’s 90th birthday. Amanda Curtis has that spirit.