Serving the Flathead Valley & Montana since 2006. A reality based independent journal of observation & analysis. © James Conner.

 

24 July 2014

Human Events poll — bad news for Lewis

Republican Ryan Zinke leads Democrat John Lewis by 12 points in the election for the U.S. House according to a poll conducted by Gravis Marketing for the conservative magazine, Human Events. Eleven percent were undecided, while six percent prefered Libertarian Mike Fellows.

In the race for the U.S. Senate, Republican Steve Daines led Democrat John Walsh by four points, with seven percent undecided and six percent preferring Libertarian Roger Roots. Gravis conducted the poll before the New York Times reported that Walsh plagiarized large parts of a paper he submitted to the war college, so the new numbers should be taken with a ton of salt.

gravis_senate_house

Lewis needs to start making more noise. A lot more noise. And pronto.

Gravis sampled 741 registered voters and reports a margin of error of four percent. My calculations indicate a 3.6 percent MOE. Below, the current version of Flathead Memo’s graph of Walsh v. Daines.