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I’ll be spending most of today resolving technical issues, so posting will be light.
At Nate Silver’s Fivethirtyeight blog, back online and expanded after escaping from the New York Times, there are posts on whether the word “data” is a plural noun that requires a plural verb, and on how Bayesian statistics could be employed in the search for Flight 370. At Intelligent Discontent, Don Pogreba looks at self defense laws in Montana and the creationist views of Montana Supreme Court candidate Lawrence VanDyke.
In college, my instructors in science, the humanities, and journalism, agreed that “data” is a plural noun that requires a plural verb: data are, not data is. My 2010 edition of the Associated Press’ stylebook agrees. Standards are slipping, however, so I was disappointed but not surprised to learn that Fivethirtyeight’s editor-in-chief considers data a mass noun requiring a singular verb. I consider the mass noun defense as one advanced by people who never really got the hang of plural nouns. Plurals never seemed hard to me, so while I won’t hang anyone for using data is, I’ll continue to regard it as a sic expression. If you have time this morning for another debate on grammar, read Roy Peter Clark’s essay on the serial (or for snobs like me, Oxford) comma.
In May, 1968, the Skipjack class nuclear submarine USS Scorpion, carrying two nuclear tipped torpedos, disappeared on its way home to Norfolk, VA. She was found in October in 9,800 feet of water off the Azores after the Navy’s chief scientist, John Craven, employed Bayesian methods to define a search box. What sunk her has never been completely settled — and the atomic torpedos remain aboard the wreck.
Could Craven’s methods be used to locate the missing Malaysian Boeing 777-200ER? Probably. As Carl Bialik explains on Fivethirtyeight, the methods have been successful in the past. They should be given a try, but only if the government of Malaysia cooperates fully, something it reportedly isn’t doing now. I’m sure Malaysia would prefer finding that the aircraft dropped out of the sky because of a mechanical failure. Then Boeing could be blamed. But if a Malaysian citizen is responsible, then the government of Malaysia looks bad and could fall.
Many students, incidentally, have a hard time wrapping their heads around Bayesian probability. I don’t know whether it’s just that hard, or a subject that’s not taught well.
Assistant state attorney general Lawrence VanDyke was an engineer before he became a lawyer. That undoubtedly helps him understand technical disputes. But he’s also a creationist. If elected to the court, he seems likely to rule that on evolution, religion trumps science. Don Pogreba is not amused by the prospect. Neither am I. And neither was Montana Cowgirl last week.
Pogreba also looks at the self-defense mess created when Gov. Schweitzer signed HB-228 in 2009. I confess to some ambivalence on this. The castle doctrine can provide a cover for murder. That’s bad. At the same time, no one should be required to call the cops but do nothing else while a crook breaks into his home and starts stealing things that never can be replaced, or to always back down when confronted by thugs. Only one thing deters bullies and stops crooks: fighting back, and never backing down. We have the right to defend ourselves, and with force if necessary.