Serving the Flathead Valley & Montana since 2006. A reality based independent journal of observation & analysis. © James Conner.
Gravis Marketing’s latest Montana poll on behalf of Human Events reports Amanda Curtis gaining on Steve Daines, but still 13 points behind him, and John Lewis 10 points behind Ryan Zinke. Gravis’ polled 535 likely voters on 29–30 September. A Gravis poll of registered voters, taken 22 July, reported Zinke was leading Lewis by eight percent. Graphs of the Senate and House polls from July through today are below.
Curtis, at 41 percent, has reached former Democratic nominee John Walsh’s high point. It’s late, and she’s still a long shot, but she’s closing the gap. Democrats and friends should shovel money into her campaign.
Lewis, also at 41 percent, has lost a couple of points to Zinke, probably the difference between the registered voter sample in July and the likely voter sample at September’s end. The July poll included Libertarian candidate Mike Fellows. The smaller sample September poll did not. Zinke climbed above 50 percent, possibly on the strength of two television ads designed to exploit irrational fears of terrorism.
President Obama’s approval rating in Montana was only 36 percent with just seven percent unsure. Hillary Clinton is no more popular than Obama, losing to both Paul Ryan and Rand Paul. Curtis and Lewis are running ahead of Obama and Clinton by five points or so, but they certainly are not helped by Montana’s low opinion of the President and she who would succeed him.
This is just one poll, so take it with the customary grain of salt and shot of tequila. It doesn’t strike me as an obvious outlier, but there’s no way of really knowing until more polls are released.
