Serving the Flathead Valley & Montana since 2006. A reality based independent journal of observation & analysis. © James Conner.
Amanda Curtis is down 18 points according to the latest Yougov.com poll, and 14 points according to the latest (and last) Gravis poll. John Lewis is down 12 points according to the Gravis poll. Both polls are of likely voters. The graphs, with margin of error bars, are below.
Keep in mind that likely voters metric while you consider this paragraph from the Washington Post, flagged by Ed Kilgore at his Political Animal blog:
When asked whether they will vote for the Democrat or the Republican in their House districts, 50 percent of likely voters say the Republican and 44 percent say the Democrat. Among the larger universe of registered voters, Democrats have an edge — 47 percent to 44 percent. That swing of nine points between registered and likely voters is identical to the difference recorded at this point in 2010.
On 21 October I reported that Montana mailed 82,500 fewer absentee ballots than in 2012. That falloff hurts Democrats more than Republicans. Moreover, even a heroic get out the vote push this weekend is likely to produce an 80,000-voter increase in Election Day turnout.
