A reality based independent journal of observation & analysis, serving the Flathead Valley & Montana since 2006. © James Conner.

7 April 2015

Democrats lost the Medicaid expansion battle on 4 Nov. 2014

Medicaid expansion in Montana probably died today in the MT House’s health and human services committee. There’ll be more maneuvering in the remainder of the session, but I don’t think supporters of expansion can muster the votes to resurrect expansion in any form.

But the battle to expand Medicaid in Montana was really lost on 4 November 2014 when Montana’s voters elected Republican majorities in both chambers of the MT Legislature. There’s even an argument that the battle was lost on 19 January 2010 when Democrat Martha Coakley* lost the special election to replace Ted Kennedy, thus depriving Democrats of a filibuster-proof majority in the U.S. Senate and of the ability to make fixes in the Affordable Care Act.

Forget about public opinion polls that report a majority of the people favor expanding Medicaid. The poll that counts is the election. Republicans campaigned against expanding Medicare. Democrats supported expansion, but not with sufficient vigor and conviction. Republicans prevailed. Yes, some of those Republicans favored what I would call a Nixonian expansion of Medicaid, but they also stuck with the Republican caucus, electing Austin Knudsen speaker of the MT House, and acquiscing in committee compositions that produced today’s result.

There is no substitute for winning elections. Until Democrats learn how to win midterm elections, and Montana Democrats learn how to win legislative majorities again, something that may no longer be possible, Montana’s legislature will approve Republican policies. We should expect nothing else.

* Incredibly, Massachussetts Democrats forgave Coakley’s 2010 sin and nominated her to run for governor in 2014. She lost again, an entirely predictable outcome.