16 September 2015

Tycoons on white horses & advice for candidates

Does Democratic polling report Gianforte is the choice of GOP voters? My hunch is that the answer is Yes. That would explain why the attack dog operation of the Montana Democratic Party (Montana Republicans have attack dogs, too) is chewing on Gianforte’s instead of Brad Johnson’s ankle. On paper, Johnson is a more formidable candidate, but political experience seems to be a negative with Republican voters these days.

There’s national polling data that indirectly suggests why Gianforte may be popular with Montana’s Republican stalwarts. Writing at the Plum Line in today’s Washington Post, Greg Sargent reports (scroll down):

A new New York Times/CBS News poll finds that 39 percent of Republican voters think Donald Trump would give them their best shot at winning the White House next year. Only 11 percent say that about Jeb Bush. And nearly half of Republicans want someone from the private sector as the nominee.

In Montana, Gianforte is the tycoon on a white horse. To those who see him as such, his political inexperience is an asset, and his wealth is proof of accomplishment and ability. His major problem, one GOP legislator told me, is his religion, which may be too intense and far from the mainstream for the comfort of Montanans.

Advice for candidates: get your ducks in a row before filing your C-1 form with Montana’s Commissioner of Political Practices. For all intents and purposes, filing your C-1 is not just a hoop through which you must pass to begin raising money legally: it’s the de facto declaration of your campaign. Once you file your C-1, you’re a candidate and filing with the Secretary of State becomes just a formality.

Therefore, the day you file your C-1, you should have:

A website with your biography, your campaign mugshot, and your issues platform and planks, as well as links for donating money and volunteering;

Campaign business cards with your campaign telephone, email, and website URL; and

A press release announcing that you just filed your C-1 because you’re running for (insert the position you seek) to do the goods and prevent the bads you list on your website’s issues page.

If you’re an incumbent in a safe district, you can get away with ignoring this advice. If you’re a challenger in a swing district, and all you want to do is raise money and ignore issues, you should have few fears that you will win.