A reality based independent journal of observation & analysis, serving the Flathead Valley & Montana since 2006. © James Conner.

15 April 2016

Could a toxic top of the GOP ticket poison Zinke’s re-election odds?

Updated, 18 April. It’s not likely, but it’s also not altogether unthinkable. Popular down ballot politicians can lose an election if their political party is perceived by the voters as too dangerous to govern. With the near certainty that the Republicans will Donald Trump or Ted Cruz for president, there is now murmuring in respectable quarters that nominees so extreme not only would fail to win the White House, but might take down the Republican majorities in both houses of Congress.

Accordingly, writing at Rasmussen Reports, Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley of Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, have moved Montana’s seat in the house from “safe Republican” to “likely Republican:”

…mostly out of an abundance of caution. Reps. Don Young (R, AK-AL), Ryan Zinke (R, MT-AL), and Scott Tipton (R, CO-3) all have drawn intriguing Democratic challengers, and if a down-ticket Democratic wave develops, perhaps all could be vulnerable even though their districts — statewide districts in the case of Young and Zinke — are significantly more Republican than the nation as a whole.

It would take a Democratic wave on the order the wave FDR rode to victory in 1932 for that to happen. There’s only been one almost close election for the U.S. House in Montana in the last 20 years. That was in 2000, when Nancy Keenan managed 46.3 percent. No Democrat has won the seat since 1994, when Pat Williams won with a plurality. Williams won with a majority in 1992.

Ryan Zinke won his seat in the U.S. House of Representatives by a whopping margin: 50k votes and 15 percentage points, and probably would have won 60–40 had Libertarian Mike Fellows not been on the ballot. He’s affable and projects the image of a man who gets things done. Voters like that.

His challengers are Democrat Denise Juneau, currently the head of Montana’s office of public instruction, and Libertarian Mike Fellows, who may receive three to five percent of the vote, cutting into Zinke’s totals. Fellows helps Juneau, although that might not be his intent.

For Juneau to be competitive, she must:

  1. Make a convincing case that Zinke must go, and that she’s the one to replace him.

  2. Raise enough money to deliver that case far and wide.

  3. Ride a wave of revulsion for Republicans that sweeps Zinke out to sea and her into the house.

She has complete control over making the “Joe must go,” and “Why me to replace thee” cases. She has limited control over raising money. She has no control over generating the wave, but does have control leaping aboard it.

Juneau’s report card

The case for me instead of thee. Thus far, she’s presented no detailed case for ousting Zinke, and only broad goals that everyone, Zinke included, can embrace:

…making sure that the next generation is prepared for the global workforce, that Montana’s public lands are responsibly managed, and that all Montanans have the opportunity to build a bright future.

That's not good enough.

Updated, 18 April. Fundraising. At the end of March, she had $524k in the bank, half as much as Zinke. $200k less than Zinke. Here’s the summary from the Federal Election Commission:

18 April 2016

zinke_in_bank_18_apr

15 April 2016

house_fundraising

More than half of the money she’s raised through individual contributions have come from Montana.

juneau_contrib_breakdown

Her campaign and the state’s Democratic party will spin her high percentage of revenues from Montanans as a virtue, but it’s a actually a sign of weakness. So are the high median contributions.

She’s going to need a lot more than $500k — Nancy Keenan raised approximately $2 million; I think Juneau needs to raise at least $3 million — which means she needs to raise a lot of money out-of-state. That won’t happen unless polling reveals she’s a good bet for donors. And not just a good bet, but a better bet than most. The available national money will go to the Democratic house candidates with the highest probability of winning.

Catching the wave. If the top of the Republican ticket becomes so toxic that voters decide the Republican party cannot be trusted with the power to govern, a Democratic wave may develop. If it does develop, it won’t be subtle. For Juneau, the question won’t be a matter of timing. It will be, rather, whether she has the wisdom and grit to argue “It doesn’t matter whether Ryan Zinke is a good man. I will stipulate that he is. But he belongs to a bad political party — and that disqualifies him for re-election to Congress.”

At this point, given the almost imperceptible sense that something may be happening beyond the horizon, “likely Republican” is a fair assessment.