A reality based independent journal of observation & analysis, serving the Flathead Valley & Montana since 2006. © James Conner.
Republican gubernatorial hopeful Greg Gianforte ran into some quantitative turbulence on MTN’s Face the State (watch it on YouTube) yesterday when Montana State University political scientist David Parker asked him whether Montana’s economy was really as bad as he claims.
Gianforte’s been saying that Montana ranks 49th in wages, just above Mississippi, a right to work state that still enjoys the Confederacy’s love of cheap labor. His number comes from the Transactional Records Clearinghouse (TRAC) at Syracuse University.
Writing at Big Sky Political Analysis, Parker reports that by other measures, Montana is doing better than next to last:
As a political scientist, I like quantitative data. At the same time, when we use quantitative data, it is important to know how the data are calculated and the potential ways in which that calculation can introduce bias into our measures. It is true that Montana is not as economically well-off as other states. But are we really only better than Mississippi? I found that hard to believe. Here are three other measures of the economy and how Montana ranks:
U.S. Census:
Per Capita Household Income (2014): 38th
Per Capita Income (2014): 34th
Bureau of Labor Statistics:
Unemployment (November 2015): Tied for 12th (with Kansas)
Not first or even in the top half for per capita or household income, but not nearly rock bottom as the 49th in wages number suggests. And the unemployment picture is stellar. So what gives? Do we really have such low pay?
Not really, to use Parker’s phrase. TRAC, Parker explains, is using income tax returns data in a way that makes Montana seem worse off than it really is. I won’t quote that section of Parker’s analysis, but be sure to read it.
If a single statistic must be employed, I prefer median household income, and start with the Census Bureau’s Median Household Income by State — Single Year Estimates (XLS) for 1984–2014. Two and three year averages also are available.
Gianforte’s use of the TRAC statistic reinforces his campaign’s message that Montana is going to economic hell under Democratic governor Steve Bullock, a life long government man. It’s a example of cherry picking data to make a dubious case. It’s also an example of the cherry’s being a sour apple.
Gianforte, a soft-spoken man, didn’t lose his composure during Parker’s interrogation, but he didn’t offer a convincing explanation for his choice of statistics. Instead, like Marco Rubio, he attempted to segue into his stump speech, but, mercifully, unlike Rubio, he avoided fast talking bellicosity.