2 February 2016

Preliminary takeaways from the Iowa caucuses

8:11:58 MST. With the counting 99+ percent complete, the New York Times reports that Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders by three tenths of one percent, and that Ted Cruz won the Republican caucuses with 27.7 percent of the vote. Some quick takeaways:

1. Seventy-two-point-three percent of Republican caucus goers wanted a nominee not named Ted Cruz.


2. Jeb Bush, with 2.8 percent of the vote, and no delegates, is far and away the leading contender for the Phil Gram award for this election’s worst delegates won to cash raised ratio.


3. Thirty-five percent of the Republicans wanted a nominee (Donald Trump, Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina) with no experience in elected or appointed office.


4. Undecided Democrats mostly chose Bernie Sanders, whose 49+ percent was seven plus points ahead of the 42 percent he received in the Des Moines Register’s final poll, which had a margin of error of four percent. Hillary Clinton’s 49+ percent was four points plus ahead of the 45 percent she received.


5. Even if Clinton finishes first, it will be by so little that her campaign should be (and, reports the NYT, is) concerned.


6. Sanders offered hope for a better politics and country. Clinton, who lost to “Yes we can!” Obama eight years ago, said, to use singe-payer health care as an example, “No, we won’t try, and anyway, it’s a bad idea.” Her implicit campaign slogan was “Curb Your Enthusiasm.” Optimists — FDR, Harry Truman, JFK, Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, Obama — win. Debbie Downers try for the nomination again eight years later.

This NYT graph from the exit polling caught my eye: