29 February 2016

Will Democratic crossover be a factor in SD-3’s Republican primary?

Kaltschmidt
Regier

Senate District 3 (map) comprises liberal leaning, mostly urban, House District 5 and deeply conservative, and virtually all rural, House District 6. SD-3 is an open seat because its current senator, Bruce Tutvedt (R-Kalispell), cannot run again because of term limits (Tutvedt could run for a house seat).

No Democrat has filed for SD-3 yet, but two Republicans have: Montana House Majority Leader Rep. Keith Regier, currently representing HD-4 where term limits make him a lame duck, and political tyro Don Kaltschmidt, best known as the master salesman who built Don K Chevrolet into one of the Flathead’s leading automobile dealerships.

Of the two Republican candidates, Kaltschmidt probably is the least conservative. He thinks killing SB-416, the $150 million infrastructure bill was mistake, while Regier is still proud he helped kill the measure. Kaltschmidt also believes he’s more progressive on conservation issues, which will help him in Whitefish.

Tristan Scott of the Flathead Beacon reports Kaltschmidt is backed by former state senator and Montana secretary of state Bob Brown, and former state senator U.S. Rep. Ryan Zinke. Bea DePratu, widow of state senator Bob DePratu (R-Whitefish) is his treasurer. Former state representative Scott Reichner signed-on as campaign manager.

No senatorial election has been held in SD-3 since the last redistricting, but the results of the district’s house seats in 2014 midterm election suggests SD-3 leans Republican:

Presidential elections increase turnout, especially for Democrats, but it seems unlikely that the Democratic majority in HD-5 will increase enough to offset the 7:3 Republican majority in HD-6. Thus, the most important election in SD-3 in 2016 is the Republican primary in June.

That gives pragmatic Democrats who are willing to commit a bit of political mischief a considerable incentive to vote for Kaltschmidt in the Republican primary.

And that possibility, in turn, gives Regier’s supporters a powerful incentive to run a Republican ringer in the Democratic primary in HD-5 against David Fern in order to keep Democrats home. Holding HD-5 is far more important to Democrats than replacing Tutvedt with Kaltschmidt.

I give Kaltschmidt even odds at best. He’s starting late (he filed on 18 February; Regier, on 14 January). His website, donkforsenate.com, still contains only an ugly “under construction” page. Still, he seems to be ahead of Regier in that department; I can’t find a website for Regier’s campaign. Although Kaltschmidt says he’s not a novice, as a candidate he is, and novices tend to make mistakes. His greatest assets are his knowledge of Whitefish, and the affability that makes him a successful salesman.

Regier’s greatest asset is having won four elections. But they were easy wins that may not have prepared him that well for the stiff challenge he’ll get from Kaltschmidt.

Expect mass media blitzes: newspaper ads, mailers, television and radio spots, internet ads, and phone call after phone call after phone call until the voters scream “no more!” Will Don K or Keith or one of their volunteers knock on the doors of Whitefish residents? Probably. Will the primary become exciting? Highly likely. This could be a Donnybrook.