A reality based independent journal of observation & analysis, serving the Flathead Valley & Montana since 2006. © James Conner.

24 July 2016

Will 2016 be the year of campaigning dangerously?

Secret Service protection of the candidates probably will be exceptionally aggressive this election. In the last 104 years, three presidential candidates have been shot, one of them fatally, and another targeted by a person wielding a knife:

Former President Theodore Roosevelt was shot in the chest on 14 October 1912 by John Shrank, who claimed the ghost of William McKinley, told him to prevent Roosevelt from winning a third term as president. McKinley was assassinated in 1901. Shrank spent the rest of his life in a mental hospital. Roosevelt finished his speech, survived, but lost the election to Woodrow Wilson

Sen. Robert F. Kennedy was killed on 5 June 1968 by gunshots to the head administered by Sirhan Sirhan, a Palestinian immigrant who disliked Kennedy’s support for Israel. Sirhan was sentenced to life in prison, where, at age 72, he remains.

Gov. George Wallace was gut-shot by Arthur Bremer on 15 May 1972. Bremer’s motive was to become famous by committing a notorious act. His primary target was President Richard Nixon, but shot Wallace because Nixon was too well guarded. Bremer was sentenced to 63 years in prison, which on appeal was reduced to 53 years. Paroled in 2007, he probation ends in 2025, when he will be 75 years old. Wallace, paralyzed from the waist down, spent the rest of his life in a wheelchair.

Sen. Ted Kennedy, three weeks after announcing in 1979 that he was running for president, was in his office on 28 November 1979 when Suzanne Osgood, a woman with mental issues, was arrested outside his office. She was carrying a six-inch hunting knife. Kennedy received many death threats over the years.

Roosevelt, Wallace, and Ted Kennedy, were targeted by individuals with misfiring brains. Robert Kennedy was assassinated by a lone wolf with political motives. None of the incidents involved a conspiracy. None involved a long gun.

Today, I suspect that Donald Trump, an immensely polarizing figure, may draw the attention of deranged individuals; of lone wolves with political motives; and possibly of members of the Muslim or black power lunatic fringes. Most, perhaps all, of his detractors will limit their displeasure to rants on the internet, threatening letters, and chest thumping bartalk. But a few may try to take him out, especially if it appears he could win.

Hillary Clinton also is polarizing, and will receive threats, but I think she’s far less at risk than Trump of experiencing an attempted assassination.

I will make one prediction. If Donald Trump is murdered before election day, Rep. Paul Ryan will replace him as the Republican presidential candidate.