9 June 2016
If Republicans voted for Trump, they probably voted for Gianforte
And if they didn’t vote for Trump, they probably didn’t vote for Gianforte. Although the GOP’s de facto nominee, Trump won only 73.7 percent of the votes cast in Montana’s GOP presidential primary. And despite having only token opposition, Gianforte won only 76.4 percent of the votes cast in the GOP gubernatorial primary.
There was some down ballot falloff, but on a county level basis, votes for Trump and Gianforte were highly correlated. I think that will also be true at the precinct level.
Some of the neither Trump nor Gianforte vote might be a crossover effect, which might be revealed by comparing the teabagger versus “responsible Republicans” precincts with those without internecine GOP battles. But until and unless a crossover effect is proven and quantified, the most probable explanation is that almost one of four Republicans are not happy with their party’s candidates and therefore cast protest votes for president and governor.
Below, I’ve plotted countywide Gianforte vote as a function of the countywide Trump vote. There undoubtedly were voters who voted for Gianforte but not for Trump, or who voted for Trump but not for Gianforte, but a correlation this tight suggests that the vast majority who voted for Trump also voted for Gianforte.
At Big Sky Political Analysis, MSU political scientist David Parker has some thoughts on the Gianforte-Nelson situation.
