A reality based independent journal of observation & analysis, serving the Flathead Valley & Montana since 2006. © James Conner.

10 November 2016

Steve Bullock's impressive re-election victory

This time, Steve Bullock was elected with a majority, defeating Greg Gianforte by 3.8 points, 50.2 to 46.4 percent. The margin was more than double Bullock’s 1.7 percent over Rick Hill in 2012. Libertarian Ted Dunlap received fewer votes than his running mate, Ron Vandevender, did in 2012.

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Although Bullock was not the top vote getter in Montana — Republican Tim Fox earned that honor — he was the top Democratic vote getter, and more votes were cast in the election for Governor than in any other statewide partisan election. More than 14,000 fewer votes were cast for President than for governor, an unusual outcome suggesting widespread dissatisfaction with the two major Presidential candidates.

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Compared to 2012, Bullock lost votes in some smaller and eastern Montana Counties, but as the graph below reveals, more than made up the difference in the state’s largest and western counties. Download detailed county-level spreadsheet.

Given this year’s political climate, Bullock was sailing against the wind while Gianforte was sailing on a broad reach, yet his boat reached the finish line first. Gianforte, a political tyro with a big wad of banknotes, made mistakes that helped Bullock. But give Bullock credit for running a metrics driven campaign that, other than lying that Gianforte was a New Jersey multimillionaire, made few mistakes.

Bullock’s campaign manager, Eric Hyers, will be in demand for 2018, and rightly so.

Gianforte joins Meg Whitman in the society of business based candidates who spent like drunken sailors, which is to say generously but not wisely, and were left with shallower pockets and a splitting headache after the votes were counted.