6 October 2016

New poll reports Juneau just three points behind Zinke

Democrat Denise Juneau’s campaign announced today that according to a recent poll by Harstad Strategic Research (Boulder, CO), she’s trailing incumbent Republican Rep. Ryan Zinke by just three points, 42–45 percent, with the Libertarian candidate drawing three percent and nine percent undecided. The sample size was 403, and the margin of error, 4.9 percent.

The date or dates of the poll, how the poll was conducted (telephone, robocall, internet, etc.), and whether the sample is of registered or likely voters, were not divulged. Because we don’t know when the poll was conducted, we don’t know whether the Libertarian candidate was the late Mike Fellows or his replacement, Rick Breckenridge.

Although the difference is within the margin of error, the results should not be considered a statistical tie. According to the American Research Group’s Ballot Lead Calculator, the likelihood that Zinke is leading is 73 percent.

Still, Democrats should take cautious encouragement from this poll. If Trump starts tanking big time, and Zinke continues making foolish statements about Juneau, and continues leaving the impression he’s running for Secretary of Defense, or at least Secretary of Seal Team Six, he could find himself on the beach on 9 November. I wouldn’t bet on that outcome just yet, but I wouldn’t be flabbergasted by it.