11 October 2016

Democrats in the Flathead sing the red district blues

Only two of the nine Montana House of Representatives districts wholly or almost wholly (HD-10 is partly in Lake County) in Flathead County — HD-5 in Whitefish (map) and HD-3 in Columbia Falls (map) are represented by Democrats. The other districts are solidly Republican. Indeed, several are so profoundly Republican that Democratic candidate recruitment for them wastes resources.

In the 2014 midterm elections, only Democratic Ed Lieser in HD-5 received a majority. Democrat Zac Perry defeated incumbent Republican Rep. Jerry O’Neil with a 48-vote plurality in a three-way contest. Lieser retired from the legislature. Democrat Dave Fern, a long term Whitefish school board member, is running to replace him. Perry, running for re-election against Republican Taylor Rose, has one of the toughest elections in Montana.

HD-10 is located partly in Lake County, but mostly in Flathead County

Democratic turnout increases in Presidential years. That will narrow the gap in the Flathead’s Republican strongholds, but the red districts in the graph above will stay red.

In the map below, non-Flathead districts are labeled in gray. HD-15 is in the Flathead, but there are no Flathead voters in the district. HD-13 is mostly in Sanders County, but includes Marion in the west Flathead.