16 October 2016

Montanans don’t much like Trump — but they’ll vote for him anyway

Montanans don’t think all that well of Donald Trump, but that’s not going to stop a plurality of them from voting for him; because, reports the Missoulian, citing a new Mason-Dixon poll commissioned by the newspaper, Montanans like Hillary Clinton even less.

The results, in the table below (but be sure to read the original story), are consistent with fivethirtyeight.com’s latest projection for Montana. Fivethirtyeight’s projection is not based in any measure on the Mason-Dixon poll; thus it provides an independent check on the Mason-Dixon survey.

The Mason-Dixon poll sampled 1,003 likely voters by telephone, calling both landlines and cell phones. Mason-Dixon is an established polling firm with a good reputation. This is a quality poll that should be taken seriously.

Presumably, Mason-Dixon also polled the contests for governor, congress, statewide offices such as attorney general, and ballot measures. But that information, assuming it exists, has not been released.

Newspapers have an old, bad, deeply annoying, habit of commissioning polls, then dribbling out the results over several days in an attempt to build interest and keep readers coming back for more. Come back they do, sometimes with a stiffer drink in hand each morning to mitigate their exasperation and impatience. I don’t drink, but figuratively speaking, I’ll be hoisting a glass of the hard stuff, too. Still, I’m glad we’re finally getting some useful polls in Montana.