24 October 2016
Strategic GOP voting could hurt Montana Dems in future elections
Montana’s Republicans, who believe that Libertarians candidates are sucking votes away from Republicans in statewide elections, may have a rare opportunity to saddle their Democratic counterparts with a equally exasperating leftist third party option — if Republicans can bring themselves to vote for Green Party Presidential candidate Jill Stein.
If Stein receives five percent of the votes received by the winning candidate for governor, the Green Party will be able to nominate its candidates by primary election instead of by petition:
MCA 13-10-601. Parties eligible for primary election — petitions by minor parties.
- (1) Each political party that had a candidate for a statewide office in either of the last two general elections who received a total vote that was 5% or more of the total votes cast for the most recent successful candidate for governor shall nominate its candidates for public office, except for presidential electors, by a primary election as provided in this chapter.
- (2) (a) A political party that does not qualify to hold a primary election under subsection (1) may qualify to nominate its candidates by primary election by presenting a petition, in a form prescribed by the secretary of state, requesting the primary election.
- (b) The petition must be signed by a number of registered voters equal to 5% or more of the total votes cast for the successful candidate for governor at the last general election or 5,000 electors, whichever is less. The number must include the registered voters in more than one-third of the legislative districts equal to 5% or more of the total votes cast for the successful candidate for governor at the last general election in those districts or 150 electors in those districts, whichever is less.
Not that many votes are needed. Suppose this year’s successful gubernatorial candidate receives 250,000 votes (Bullock received 236,450 in 2012), Stein would need 12,500 votes — approximately 20 votes per precinct — to put the Green Party on the ballot in 2018, when Tester is up for re-election. A Green Party candidate would not draw votes from Tester’s Republican challenger, but might well draw votes from Tester, thereby neutralizing the Libertarian’s negative effect on the Republican candidate.
The Montana GOP’s current ire with the Libertarian Party began in 2006, when Democrat Jon Tester was elected U.S. Senator with a plurality of the vote, defeating Republican incumbent Sen. Conrad Burns and Libertarian Stan Jones. In 2006, Jones received 10,377 votes, almost three times Tester’s 3,562 vote margin over Burns. Republicans blamed Jones for Burns’ defeat.
Six years later, Tester was re-elected by a plurality, and Democrat Steve Bullock was elected governor by a plurality. Tester defeated Republican Rep. Denny Rehberg by 18,072 votes. Libertarian Dan Cox received 31,892 votes. Bullock defeated Republican Rick Hill by 7,571 votes, a margin less than half of the 18,160 votes received by Libertarian Ron Vandevender (who is running for governor this year). Once again, Republicans were livid, believing they would have defeated Tester and Bullock had Libertarians not been on the ballot. That led to an attempt to inflict on Montana voters a top two primary that would have kept Libertarians off the general election ballot.
Thus far, I’m not aware of any organized effort to persuade Republicans not to waste their votes on Trump, or, worse, on Libertarian Gary Johnson, but to instead vote for Stein to qualify the Green Party for the ballot and hurt Democrats in 2018. But the strategy cannot have escaped the contemplation of the GOP’s leaders.
GOP votes might not be needed for Stein to reach the primary qualification threshold. A good many Democrats, unhappy with Hillary Clinton, mindful she probably cannot win in Montana, and mindful that she has conceded the state, may cast ballots for Stein as a protest against the Democratic establishment.
Montana’s Green Party is actively seeking votes for Stein. And the word over my grapevine is that some, perhaps not many, supporters of Bernie Sanders are saying they will vote for down ballot Democrats, but vote for Stein to qualify the Green Party for the next primary. Ralph Nader would be pleased.