21 April 2017 — 1739 mdt
Rob Quist’s “I love guns” ad channels Rosendale’s “I shot the drone” ad
Rob Quist’s campaign express is rolling faster every day. Money is rolling in, more than $2 million so far. National Democrats are finally rolling in, mostly so they won’t be blamed if Quist crashes and burns. And television ads are rolling out. The latest ad (below) proclaims Quist’s undying love for the Second Amendment. More on that in a moment.
First, a note on strategy and tactics. If Quist turns out the Montanans who voted for Steve Bullock five months ago when he defeated Greg Gianforte, he has a respectable chance of winning. If Bullock shared his data, Quist’s campaign knows the names of many of those voters, and can use modern campaign analytics (see Sasha Issenberg’s The Victory Lab) to identify voters with a high probability of voting for Quist. His campaign will concentrate more on getting those people to vote, and less on persuading fence sitters and those who are indifferent to politics. After absentee ballots are mailed to voters next week, Quist’s campaign will concentrate on getting those ballots marked and returned.
Exciting voters, and making an emotional connection with them, is the objective of Quist’s 30-second TV ads. His latest ad, released with the usual fanfare this week, avers his everlasting love for the Second Amendment in a dramatic fashion that Brian Schweitzer would approve, and channels Matt Rosendale’s unrestrained enthusiasm for Second Amendment solutions.
Here’s Quist’s gunslinging ad:
And here’s the drone shooting ad Rosendale released during the 2014 Montana Republican primary for the U.S. House that Ryan Zinke won:
These are two of the finest, and worst, examples of gunpowder campaigning in Montana’s history. In one sense, they’re classic specimens of the no one ever lost an election by being shameless school of politics. Both are products of a wry sense of humor. But both tacitly endorse solving problems by shooting things — and in every which way, that’s wrong.
A year ago, after he delivered a campaign speech while costumed in pseudo-military clothing with a long gun strapped to his back, I took Chet Billi to task for violating the political norms of a civilized society:
We employ political campaigns to settle our differences through the exchange of ideas, arguments, and information. A candidate who delivers a speech while carrying a rifle and wearing camouflage violates the social contract, and through his conduct, declares himself bereft of the judgment we require in elective office.
Rob Quist’s a straight shooter — that’s why I endorsed him — but that approach should be figurative, not literal. He should lay down his sword, shield, and shootin’ iron, and shout his message from the bully pulpit. Let Matt Rosendale shoot up the skies — and don’t let Donald Trump, Jr., who takes joy from killing things, shoot up prairie dogs.