A reality based independent journal of observation & analysis, serving the Flathead Valley & Montana since 2006. © James Conner.

12 December 2017 — 1347 mdt

Alabama senate; Matt, Roy, and Donald;
MT districts Dems can win; recommended reads

Alabama’s special senate election underscores the limitations of polling. Voting in the election concludes this evening. The contest between Republican Roy Moore and Democrat Doug Jones has been heavily polled, but the results have been wildly inconsistent, with some polls reporting Moore leading by ten points and others reporting he’s ten points behind. At FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver explains how different polling methods are producing such disparate results, and offers a friendly reminder that polling cannot provide the precision and certainty that many demand.

Matt Rosendale stands by Trump and Roy Moore

Rosendale, Montana’s Republican state auditor, seeks the Republican nomination for the U.S. Senate seat now occupied by Democrat Jon Tester. Republicans value loyalty, and Rosendale knows it. Not embracing Moore might not cost as many votes as not embracing Trump, but it would costs votes, and might make working with Moore more difficult were both Moore and Rosendale to be elected to the senate. Politically, Rosendale’s loyalty to Trump and Moore is commendable and smart. Morally, it’s as fragrant as a fresh road apple at high noon in August.

I’m beginning to think Rosendale’s the favorite to win the GOP senate primary. Russ Fagg had great promise and looked good on paper, but he’s a rookie statewide candidate and he’s having trouble getting traction. Troy Downing, another rookie, has Ryan Zinke’s indirect blessing, which may be a curse, and seems to be running a vanity campaign. State Senator Albert Olszewski is a serious candidate running his second statewide campaign, but he’s neither as well known nor as well funded as Rosendale, who’s running his third statewide campaign.

MT Dems should field strong candidates in legislative districts Bullock won

There are at least three MT House districts that Steve Bullock carried in 2016 but the Democratic candidate for the legislature lost. In two of these districts, HD-65 in Bozeman, and HD-96 in Missoula, incumbent Democratic legislators were defeated by their own mistakes and aggressive, attractive, well funded and organized, Republicans. In Kalispell’s HD-7, incumbent Republican Frank Garner, a former police chief for whom many Democrats have far too much love, was re-elected by a wide margin.

All of these districts can be won by Democrats in 2018 — provided Democrats field strong candidates, and run strong, smart, campaigns.

Recommended reading