13 December 2017 — 1442 mdt

Alabama takeaways

Progressives should avoid drawing too many lessons from Democrat Doug Jones’ victory over Republican Roy Moore in yesterday’s special U.S. Senate election in Alabama. Jones exploited the Alabama GOP’s failure to nominate a wholesome candidate, but won only by a narrow plurality. In 2020, Alabama’s Republicans probably will nominate someone like Mo Brooks or Luther Strange, and win back the seat.

Moore, a throwback not just to George Wallace, Lester Maddox, and Harry F. Byrd, but also to Cotton Ed Smith and Theodore Bilbo, was a favorite of the evangelicals in the peckerwoods, but lost support in the suburbs when his affection for under-aged girls was exposed by the Washington Post.

Moore has yet to concede, and is threatening a recount. That’s mostly sour grapes and bluster, I suspect. He’s 20,000 votes behind. But he might, if he can raise the money, demand a recount simply to keep Luther Strange's vote in the Senate as long as possible. If there’s no recount, the election should be certified in a couple of weeks, and Jones should be seated in late December or early January.

The lesson for Democrats is that rare opportunities such as in Alabama can be exploited only when they have a quality candidate who runs a quality campaign. The lesson for Republicans is that nominating a jackass is foolish — but this is not the first time Republicans have done that. They got away with nominating Donald Trump, but not with nominating Richard Murdock, Christine O'Donnell, Sharon Angle, and Todd Akin. Democrats, however, should think twice before deciding that they can win in 2018 by making sexual harassment and assault their main issue. Most 2018 GOP candidates will not be such dirty dudes and outright fools as Moore, and the elections will be won or lost on economics.