4 April 2018 — 1642 mdt
The MDP’s attempt to strike the Green Party
from the ballot will alienate some voters forever
The Montana Democrat Party will pay a price at the polls whether or not it succeeds in removing the Green Party from the 2018 ballot.
At Big Sky Words, Greg Strandberg, who filed as a Green for SD-49, a Missoula district now represented by Democrat Diane Sands, observed:
I can’t help but think that Greens will be removed from the ballot.
And I can’t help but think that many of those potential Green voters will feel disgruntled, and I don’t think their votes will be going to the Dems.
Might go to the GOP, just in spite. Seems that’s the main theme of this election cycle, after all — spite.
He’s right about the probable fallout. Angry Greens are not likely to switch their votes to Jon Tester if they’re deprived of the opportunity to vote for Steve Kelly or Tim Adams. Some may be angry enough to retaliate by voting for the Republican (probably Matt Rosendale).
If the Democrats considered that outcome when they evaluated their options, and most likely they did, they must have concluded it was the lesser of two evils. Or perhaps they simply concluded that deprived of a chance to vote for their party’s candidate, they’d revert to voting for a Democrat. More on that in a moment.
In its complaint, the MDP claimed that:
Its right, status, or other legal relations have been affected by the Defendants’ actions pursuant to the Political Party Qualification Statute. In particular, allowing the Green Party to qualify for a primary election here, and thus obtain general election ballot access, would result in the Montana Democratic Party having to expend additional funds and resources to educate and persuade voters to support Democratic candidates over candidates claiming to be affiliated with the Green Party, as would be the case if any other unqualified political party were added to the ballot. This injury will be particularly acute here, as at least some candidates seeking the Green Party’s nomination appear to have long-standing affiliations with the Democratic Party’s primary political rival, the Republican Party, and are seeking the Green Party’s nomination to act as “spoiler” candidates, rather than to advance the Green Party’s stated principles and values.
Running as a spoiler candidate is deplorable, but legal provided the candidate legally qualifies for the ballot. Whether any or all of the Green Party’s candidates are spoilers is irrelevant to the legal issues in the MDP’s lawsuit. The only question before the court is whether enough legal petition signatures were submitted to the state to qualify the Green Party for the ballot. The MDP claims it’s review of the signatures discovered that 180 were not valid, and argues that if those signatures are disqualified, the signature totals meet the legal quotas in only 30 legislative districts instead of the 34 required for ballot access. We’re now waiting to learn whether the judge agrees.
When turnout is well below 100 percent, voting is not a zero-sum game
Implicit in the MDP’s actions is the premise that voting is a zero-sum game: that votes for Green candidates are votes that otherwise would be cast for Democratic candidates. If an election’s turnout is 100 percent, or very close to 100 percent, the zero-sum premise is true. But Montana’s elections have turnouts below, and often well below, 75 percent, and the zero-sum theorem does not apply.
If the Green Party is on the general election ballot, the votes a Green candidate receives may come from voters who would not have voted for the Democrat under any circumstances. In the U.S. Senate race, the contest that worries the MDP the most, a vote for the Republican hurts Jon Tester, but a vote for the Libertarian or the Green does not in a non-zero-sum situation.
If the Greens are kicked off the ballot, and they may be, voters who had planned to vote for the Green candidate have several options:
- Voting for the Democrat, the next best ideological fit.
- Not voting.
- Writing-in the name of the former Green candidate.
- Writing-in the name of another person.
- Voting for the Libertarian.
- Voting for the Republican.
My limited review of the political science literature leads me to postulate a rough, very rough, rule of thumb: approximately half of a third party candidates votes would revert to the candidate who is the next best ideological match if the third party were not on the ballot. Apply that rule with wide error bars and lots of salt.
But my literature review provided no guidance on how a third party’s voters might react if their party was booted off the ballot, especially if the boot was applied unfairly.
That’s why I think Strandberg makes a valid point. A coldly rational Green might vote for the Democrat if the opportunity for casting a Green vote disappears. But a Green furious at the MDP for taking away the opportunity to vote for the Green Party’s candidate might say “Screw you, Democrats. I’m voting Republican to teach you a lesson.” Irrational? Yes. But a predictable human response.
Whether or not the Green Party remains on the ballot, Montana’s Greens will neither forget nor forgive the MDP’s assault on the Greens any time soon, if ever.