22 August 2018 — 0827 mdt

Nate Silver rates Gianforte v Williams as a toss-up to likely GOP

At fivethirtyeight.com, Nate Silver presents three sets of predictions for the U.S. House of Representatives. He gives the Democrats a 75 percent chance of winning control of the U.S. House.

Silver rates incumbent Republican Rep. Greg Gianforte’s odds of winning a second term as slightly better than even to likely. Here’s a table of the three cases:

A Gravis poll released after Montana’s 5 June primary reported Williams was leading Gianforte by six points. I have not found a subsequent poll on the contest, let alone a subsequent poll confirming the Gravis survey.

Gianforte has the advantages of having run two statewide campaigns, his ability to self-fund his campaign, and the backing of wealthy and politically ruthless people. His disadvantages include his reputation as a bully boy who bodyslams reporters, and his association with a president who carried Montana by 20 points but who now carries balls and chains named Cohen and Manafort.

Williams won her primary by unabashedly favoring tougher controls on firearms, and by pandering to the gender identity vote. Those approaches are not assets in the general election, but they may not be fatal if she catches a big enough blue wave. But to catch that wave, she’ll need to rake in a mountain of greenbacks.

Williams must also run a nearly mistake free campaign. That includes not getting caught without a published position on her website on an important issue such as immigration (her missing plank on immigration gave Gianforte an opening to release a nasty ad defining her as an advocate of open border and opponent of border law enforcement).

I’ve endorsed Williams, but I agree with Silver that when the fundamentals are taken into account, she’s not likely to win.