29 August 2018 — 1605 mdt
Partisan poll reports Rosendale leads Tester by two points
A poll conducted 20–22 August by WPA Intelligence, and commissioned by the Republican National Senatorial Committee, reports that Matt Rosendale is leading incumbent Sen. Jon Tester 47 to 45 percent. The probability that Rosendale is leading is 69 percent. FiveThirtyEight gives WPA a “B” rating.
According to Roll Call, six-hundred likely voters were interviewed, 40 percent by cell phone. The sampling margin of error is four percent, but weighting the results to compensate for differences between the demographics of the sample and the population, and the method of determining who a likely voter is, will widen the error bars. WPA did not release the crosstabs.
A Remington Research poll conducted 8–10 July reported Tester was leading 49 to 46 percent.
FiveThirtyEight also reports that several Survey Monkey polls (D- rating) have found Tester with a lead of 10–12 points. It’s probably wise not to take the Survey Monkey reports seriously.
Rosendale is touting his fealty to President Trump, who Morning Consult reports still has a positive net favorability rating among Montanans:
Trump’s net favorability in Montana has declined from 24 percent at the beginning of his term to five percent in July, but his overall favorability in Montana remains at 51 percent (plus or minus two percent). That’s why Rosendale is promoting himself as a rubber stamp for the president’s policies, and why he and his allies are accusing Tester of voting not with Trump but with Elizabeth Warren and other high profile liberal Democrats. The RNSC’s ads on youtube.com pound home this theme with the subtlety of a steam powered jackhammer.
Rosendale’s campaign used Twitter to announce the WPA poll’s results, and invited readers to send donations. Tester’s campaign, and the Democrats, insofar as I can determine, have not responded to the WPA poll. Generally, one partisan poll tends to be countered quickly be another partisan poll. Therefore, Tester’s silence may be a tacit acknowledgment that Rosendale enjoys a slight lead in the polls as Labor Day approaches.