30 August 2018 — 1802 mdt

Two more signs that Tester and Rosendale are running neck ‘n neck

Sign one. President Trump is holding a rally for Rosendale in Billings on 6 September. He would not be making that 1,700-mile flight unless Republican campaign strategists believe the race is close and that Trump’s presence in Montana could make the difference between defeat and victory for Rosendale.

Sign two. Tester’s campaign emailed Democrats an urgent request for money, reporting a new poll showed Rosendale leading Tester by two points. The email did not argue that the poll, which Flathead Memo examined yesterday, was wrong. It’s possible, of course, that Tester’s polling shows he’s leading and that he’s withholding that information to underscore the urgency of his fundraising email. But the email is consistent with Tester’s reminding his supporters that the election will be close.

Likely Voters. In evaluating the polls of this election, remain mindful that a pollster’s definition of “likely voter” is a potential source of considerable error. A likely voter model based on the turnout for the 2010 and 2014 midterms may be too conservative if the current level of Democratic enthusiasm holds and manifests in a larger than average turnout. That happened in 2006, and it appears to have happened Tuesday in Florida, where Andrew Gillum, winner of the Democratic primary for Governor, did much better than the polls predicted.

At this point, I rate Tester v. Rosendale as too close to call.