11 December 2018 — 1814 mst
President Trump’s immigration reality show:
those whom the gods would destroy, they first make proud
That was quite some event at the White House today. Democratic leaders Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer were ambushed on immigration by President Trump, who turned a standard photo op into a 20-minute demonstration of his resolve to build a wall on the border with Mexico. Pelosi and Schumer, in turn, demonstrated their ability to goad Trump into backing himself into a corner from which there may be no face saving escape. I think the odds of a government shutdown over this issue are better than even.
Watching this was Vice President Pence, who said nothing, but whose expression, noted Ed Kilgore, betrayed his reaction:
…the more immediate issue is how, if at all, he can get out of his self-entrapment here. That may have been what was going through the mind of Mike Pence, who said nothing during the Oval Office exchange but looked like he was watching a family member disgrace himself during a drunken holiday argument.
After the shouting match, and the equally unproductive private meeting that followed, Schumer told reporters that Trump threw a temper tantrum, and Pelosi told a closed meeting of Democrats that:
…for Mr. Trump, the wall was “like a manhood thing for him.
“As if manhood could ever be associated with him,” she said.
We know what she said because after the closed meeting, an unidentified Democratic aide, blabbed to the press.
Democrats will find Pelosi’s and Schumer’s comments accurate and soul satisfying, which they are. But I also find them impolitic and worrisome, as they will further enrage Trump to no useful purpose on an issue that matters deeply to his core supporters. Writing in the Washington Post’s Daily 202, James Hohmann reports:
The survey by Marist for NPR and PBS shows that 57 percent of Americans think Trump should compromise to prevent gridlock, and 69 percent say building a border wall should not be a priority. But 65 percent of Republicans do not think Trump should compromise, even if it means a shutdown, and 63 percent say building a wall should be a top priority. Among strong Republicans, just 19 percent believe Trump should compromise on wall funding to avoid a shutdown. More than 90 percent of all Republicans approve of Trump’s handling of immigration.
At this point in the immigration debate, no one should find the intensity of Republican support for Trump on this issue surprising. Still, it’s disturbing as it makes resolving immigration issues almost impossible.
In their new book, Identity Crisis: The 2016 Presidential Campaign and the Battle for the Meaning of America, John Sides, et al, observed:
At times, other polls suggested that most Americans, including most Republicans, would support a more lenient immigration policy, such as granting undocumented immigrants permanent residency or even citizenship.
But there was less enthusiasm for how this would work in practice. For example, one survey of Californians found that 70 percent supported a path to citizenship. At the same time, however, 42 percent supported having undocumented immigrants return to their home countries first, and 51 percent said that undocumented immigrants must meet the typical criteria that legal immigrants must meet, such as having family in the United States, skills needed by U.S. employers, or a credible asylum claim. Immigration reform legislation typically required none of these, which raised concerns that it would give undocumented immigrants an unfair “inside track.”
The conclusion of the scholars who conducted this poll is striking: “The majority’s negativity toward the details of any politically-viable reform package weakens the incentive for politicians to press forward, and the large and intransigent minority of the public overall (almost half of the Republican electorate) that categorically rejects any broad-based legalization program stands as a potential group lurking and ready to mobilize against elected officials who back legalization.”
Indeed, this “potential group” had already been mobilized before the 2016 campaign. In a 2012 study of the Tea Party, the political scientists Theda Skocpol and Vanessa Williamson quoted one Tea Party supporter who said that she wanted to “stand on the border with a gun.” Another said, “I feel like my country is being stolen by people who have come here illegally.” [Citations omitted.]
These attitudes are why Sen. Steve Daines, now continuously operating in full re-election pander mode, said he was proud of Trump’s performance today; and why most Republican members of Congress will stand with Trump, whether or not they agree with him on his border barricade.
Perhaps a deal can yet be brokered, but I suspect the only way Trump can save face is by provoking a government shutdown that is resolved by a deal so that he can claim his hardball negotiating made him a winner. That’s all that matters to him.