30 December 2018 — 1621 mst
President Trump’s support is not collapsing … yet
President Trump is holding to his demand for $5+ billion for The Wall because his support, while approximately 12 points underwater nationwide, is not collapsing. Neither is his support for funding The Wall.
- FiveThirtyEight’s running average of the President's approval/disapproval numbers reports he’s currently at 41.4 percent approval and 53.3 percent disapproval. For a state by state breakdown, see Morning Consult.
- A Harvard CAPS/Harris online poll (n=1,407) conducted 24–26 December found that 44 percent want to build The Wall while 56 percent do not.
Put another way, the nation remains closely divided on immigration, with hardened positions. Only 51 percent of those polled by Harvard CAPS/Harris “should compromise and agree on a $2.5 billion funding package for border security.”
“While a plurality want President Trump to relent in terms of the shutdown, a majority want to see the Democrats and Republicans enter into a compromise with $2.5 billion in barrier funding,” said Mark Penn, the co-director of the Harvard CAPS/Harris poll.
“This suggests that Trump has room right now to wait out the shutdown as numbers are remaining stable even though most want him to cave and end it.”
What’s more, nearly two-thirds of respondents, 64 percent, see the current shutdown as a largely symbolic one. By comparison, 36 percent said they see it as a “real shutdown” that impacts their lives.
♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦
“In the 1995 shutdown, the Republicans immediately lost support,” he added. “We are not seeing a similar pattern yet, but it’s early.”
With the public so closely divided, and Trump’s base of support for building The Wall holding in the mid-forties, there’s no incentive for Republican members of Congress to force a compromise on the President. Moreover, thus far, government workers, assumed by Republicans to be overwhelmingly Democratic, are bearing the brunt of the shutdown. Trump’s base is not feeling much if any economic pain.
Thus the standoff will continue until support for one side or the other collapses.
My thinking is that once the margin gets to three to one, or wider, the party holding the short stick will lose its leverage and have to capitulate. If the Republicans end up with the short stick, they’ll have an incentive to impose a split the difference compromise on the President, thereby rescuing him from his folly. But if the Democrats end up with the short stick, they’ll have to agree to Trump’s full demands, a humbling prospect.
And make no mistake. Trump’s goal is a victory that humiliates his adversary, not a compromise that allows both parties to save face.
Democrats should be mindful that they may hold less leverage than some seem to think they have. Come 2019, they’ll hold the House of Representatives, but the Republicans will hold the Senate and the Presidency, which has the power of the veto.
The cries of not a penny for The Wall coming from liberal organizations give leaders Pelosi and Schumer cover on their left, but probably do not significantly strengthen their negotiating position.
That’s my disinterested analysis.
Personally, I prefer not spending a cent on The Wall. It would be a policy mistake. But to reopen our government, I’m willing to accept a deal that provides a couple of billion dollars for building The Wall in exchange for significant immigration reforms. The Wall, now envisioned as a string of closely spaced steel pipes or slats, would be a horrible boondoggle, but after a new administration takes power, it could be torn down and the steel recycled.