21 February 2018 — 1555 mst

Montana political briefs

Sen. Jon Tester, and Bozeman attorney Jared Pettinato, yesterday paid their filing fees for the Democratic primaries for the U.S. Senate and U.S. House. I updated my 19 February post accordingly. All the previously announced major party candidates for federal office in Montana now have filed. Libertarians may file for both offices, probably just before the 12 March deadline.

Jon Tester’s re-election should not be Steve Bullock’ highest priority

But it may be. Two weeks ago, KXLH’s Mike Dennison published a story on Gov. Bullock’s priorities for the remainder of his term.

Tester has a huge, well funded, and expertly organized, re-election campaign. He doesn’t need a lot of help from Bullock. But the Democratic Party’s legislative candidates do. Reauthorizing expanded Medicaid, even in its present bastardized form, will require a Democratic majority in the legislature.

Getting that majority should be Bullock’s top priority. He should be working the phone, pounding the doors, cutting endorsement videos, and raising money for Democratic legislative candidates. That would lack the glamour of gallivanting around the state with Tester, but it would be a real help for Democrats needing his help, such as Chris Pope in HD-65 (Bozeman), Diane Sands in SD-49 (Missoula), and whomever is nominated as the Democratic candidate to defeat Republican incumbent Frank Garner (a so-called moderate Republican much loved by some Democrats) in HD-7 (Kalispell).

A ballot measure is not a viable option for reauthorizing expanded Medicaid

After an attempt to expand Medicaid failed in the 2013 legislature, Medicaid advocates tried and failed to get a Healthy Montana initiative on the ballot. Although signatures were collected, the initiative’s backers threw in the towel and did not submit any signatures for official verification. I wrote two posts (story 1, story 2) on the initiative in 2014.

Now, anticipating a difficult path to reauthorization in the 2019 legislature, which they expect to be controlled by Republicans, some politicos are contemplating another initiative (see Mike Dennison’s 9 February story).

That’s not going to work. Even if such an initiative were make the ballot (now is too late to start a successful signature gathering campaign), and to pass, it could be modified by the legislature — and the legislature still would have to fund Montana’s share of the program.

Reauthorizing Medicaid requires a Democratic majority in the legislature. There’s no other way.

Are some Democrats trying to protect “moderate” GOP legislative candidates?

That’s a fair question. My personal impression is that many Democrats, especially Democratic legislators, have surrendered all hope of electing working majorities in the Montana Legislature. Therefore, they hope to pass progressive legislation, to raise taxes, and to defeat rightwing, nutball, legislation, by working with allegedly moderate Republicans such as Frank Garner and Llew Jones.

If that’s the plan, they’ll want to prevent the politically pragmatic pachyderms from being offended by aggressive campaigns to replace the PPPs with Democrats. That decision can take several forms: (a) not running a candidate against the PPP, (b) running an unelectable Democrat who mounts a next to invisible campaign, or (c) backhandedly endorsing the Republican with statements such as “Rep. Doklauder is an honorable legislator with a solid record of reaching across the aisle to craft bipartisan compromises that all Montanans can support. We can work with him, and he can work with us.”

Democrats should concentrate on issues, not on town halls

Jon Tester holds in-person town halls. Steve Daines and Greg Gianforte apparently no longer do. That has the Montana Democratic Party, which thinks it’s found a gotcha issue, in high dudgeon, charging Daines and Gianforte with running away from their constituents.

I’m not offended. Indeed, Gianforte deserves praise for not putting himself in a contentious setting where he might succumb to the temptation to bodyslam a voter for persisting in asking a question. His anger management classes are helping.

Town halls are mostly theatre. They do provide some input on how intensely voters hold a position on an issue, but mostly elected officials and candidates rely on public opinion polling to know what the voters are thinking. If Daines and Gianforte want to conduct town halls without face-to-face contact with Montanans, that’s a rational choice.

When the MDP laments the absence of GOP town halls, the MDP turns the spotlight on the Republicans and away from the issues that are important to Democratic voters. That’s always a mistake. Democrats must focus on what’s really important to the voters — health care, jobs, education — and not on issues of political process that consume party activists but exasperate voters.