9 March 2018 — 1707 mst
Early Friday political wrap-up
Legislative filings. In the Flathead, Shawn Guymon filed in House District 3 (Columbia Falls) as a Libertarian. Democratic Rep. Zac Perry has filed for a third term. Thus far, no Republican has filed in the district … but you can bet one will.
Cindy Dyson filed as a Libertarian in House District 5 (Whitefish), now represented by Democrat Dave Fern who is seeking a second term. No Republican has filed to challenge Dave Fern … but one will.
Dan Roat has withdrawn from the Democratic primary for House District 10, leaving the Democrats without a challenger to Republican incumbent Mark Noland.
Democrats still have not filed in House Districts 8, 9, and 11, and in Senate District 4 (Kalispell). SD-4, now represented by Republican Mark Blasdel, and composed of HDs 7 and 8, won’t be an easy lift for Democrats. Steve Bullock won HD-7 with a plurality in 2016, but lost to Gianforte by a thousand votes in HD-8. Still, it would be a shame for the Democrats to give Blasdel a free ticket to Helena.
Tomorrow, if warranted, I’ll provide an update on filings.
The Survey Monkey-Axios poll
Released earlier this week, the poll reports a generic Republican is leading Jon Tester by double digits, 55 to 42 percent. If this is in doubt, Tester will release polling, internal or third party reporting a more favorable number. If Tester does not release polling to the contrary, that will be a backhanded affirmation of the accuracy of Survey Monkey-Axios poll.
The poll sampled 1,484 Montanas, not all of them likely voters, from 12 February to 5 March. The standard margin of error for a sample of that size is 2.5 percent.
I’ve looked at the raw data. Although Survey-Monkey’s methodology page reports SM weights its results, it appears to me at first look that the Axios poll is reporting raw, unweighted, results.
As J.M. Brown notes at The Western Word, the generic opponent is the toughest opponent. At the New Yorker, Ed Kilgore observes:
At this point, four of the “Trump Ten” senators are trailing generic opponents, and one (Claire McCaskill) is trailing a named opponent (Josh Hawley). Unsurprisingly, Trump’s approval ratings in all five states are in the 50s or 60s (as compared to 43 percent nationally, in SurveyMonkey’s high-but-not-wildly-so assessment).
“Generic” opposition can be stronger or weaker than an actual opponent; it’s mostly a test of basic partisanship. Heidi Heitkamp’s newly minted opponent, Representative Kevin Cramer, is probably stronger than a “generic” Republican. The assortment of less-than-gargantuan Republicans who are running against Jon Tester may be easier to beat than a “generic” candidate. In other cases (notably Joe Donnelly’s Indiana and Joe Manchin’s West Virginia), Republicans must navigate fractious primaries and then get their act together for November. And Claire McCaskill, who looked toasty six years ago until GOP nominee Todd Akin self-destructed, is a living reminder that you never know what might happen next.
Don’t dismiss this poll because it was conducted online. The methodology is superior to the biased sample polls that proliferate on websites. But don’t take it as gospel, either, given the generic opponent and the uncertainty over whether the reported results were weighted, and if so, how. The poll could be an outlier, and it most certainly has wide error bars.
Special note to Democrats running against “Responsible Republicans”
Having a Democratic majority in the MT Legislature is in the enlightened self-interest of all unions — but not all unions recognize this. Therefore, start lining up support from the MEA-MFT and public employees unions right now.
Information available to me points to a substantial probability that some union leaders may be considering endorsing some or all of these Republicans. Keep in mind that the MEA-MFT endorsed Republican Tim Fox for MT Attorney General in 2016 (and there’s a danger Fox could get the union’s endorsement again if he runs for governor in 2020). Securing early and strong support from the rank-and-file is the the best way to thwart the efforts misguided union leaders to endorse Republicans.