6 November 2018 — 0952 mst
Republican pollster Trafalgar releases poll
showing Tester leading Rosendale by a point
Take this poll, released today, with more than one grain of salt.
The Atlanta, Georgia based Trafalgar Group sampled 953 likely voters during 2–5 November. The sampling margin of error margin of error is 3.2 percent. Trafalgar did not disclose its sampling methodology or how the sample was weighted, but the firm’s entry in the Ballotpedia suggests robopolling:
… publishes polls conducted by phone concerning races for federal office. According to PoliZette, the firm is noteworthy for “using psychology combined with normal polling science” in its work … does polling by phone using auto-dialing technology and computer-generated questionnaires. Cahaly told Breitbart in November 2016 that the firm’s polls last one to two minutes and are designed to quickly get opinions from those who would not typically participate in political polls.
FiveThirtyEight gives a “C” rating. Former South Carolina Republican operative Robert Cahaly, known for the robocalling case Cahaly v. LaRosa, and for favoring bow ties and plaid sports coats, founded the firm. In 2016, Trafalgar predicted Trump’s victory.
At this point, much of the vote is in, so although Tester v. Rosendale appears to be tightening, a shift of support toward Rosendale might not be enough to put him over the top. FiveThirtyEight’s Lite Model forecast rates the race as Leans Democratic, puts Tester’s odds of winning at five in seven, and forecasts a popular vote victory of 3.5 percent. Bear in mind as the vote is counted that the forecast’s numbers are not hard targets but are the central value in a range of values.
Flathead Memo offers registered voter and voting eligible turnout data for 1920–2017 in a downloadable spreadsheet.
Here are the latest plots for Montana’s election for the U.S. Senate:
