7 November 2018 — 0514 mst

First post-election roundup

The votes are still being counted in Montana’s largest counties — the counties where the most Democratic votes are found. Kathleen Williams is 37,000 votes behind Greg Gianforte. She may close the gap some, but it appears Gianforte will win. Sen. Jon Tester is slightly under 4,000 votes behind Matt Rosendale, but the votes from Missoula and Gallatin Counties could overcome that deficit, returning Tester to the U.S. Senate for another six years.

Ballot measures

The university levy, LR-128, is passing handily. LR-129, which legislative Republicans put on the ballot to put a crimp in the Montana Democratic Party’s get out the vote operation, is passing handily, too.

Initiative 186, which would have denied permits for mines that would have to treat water for eternity, is losing by a three to two margin. The mining industry spent heavily on a campaign to defeat it. I-186’s proponents were overmatched.

Initiative 185, which would raise taxes on tobacco, and remove the sunset provision in Montana’s expanded Medicaid law, is down approximately 34,000 votes and appears headed for defeat. The tobacco industry — the lung cancer lobby — spent tens of millions of dollars opposing (and lying about) the measure. I-185’s proponents were overmatched financially, and made huge and probably fatal strategic and tactical blunders.

If I-185 fails, 100k Montanans, one-tenth of Montana’s population, will lose their health insurance, and Montana will lose half a billion dollars in federal Medicaid subsidies — unless the legislature defies the will of the electorate and removes the sunset provision in the current law.

U.S. House and Senate

The major news services report that Democrats will pick up 25–30 seats, enough to win a narrow majority in the U.S. House. That’s a blue wave, but a mighty small one. In the U.S. Senate, Republicans have picked up seats in North Dakota, Indiana, Missouri, and possibly Florida and Montana.

Montana legislature and PSC

I’ll wait until all precincts have reported before summarizing the results. But it does not appear that Democrats won either chamber.

Tight lipped poll watchers

At my precinct in Flathead County, there were two poll watchers, both women. They wore “Poll Watcher” stickers. One, sitting next to a poll worker, entered my name into a tablet computer when the poll worker showed the watcher my drivers license (an invitation to identity theft). I asked the poll watcher, “For whom are you watching?” She replied, “We’re not allowed to answer that question.” Jesus H. Christ! That’s public information, not a state secret. We don’t need the poll watching analog of dark money. For whom was she watching? Putin? I still haven’t found out, but I’m damn sure going to raise hell until I get an answer.

The other poll watcher at my precinct said nothing. She hid her “Poll Watcher” tag behind strands of her long hair. Women, incidentally, are notorious for this kind of behavior. Nurses, for example, turn their name tags around to conceal their name.

All poll workers and watcher should wear large tags with their names and job titles. Violators should receive lifelong bans on working at the polls, and also spend a couple of days in the hoosegow.