8 November 2018 — 0826 mst

Montana’s high turnout election ratified the status quo

And that’s not good for Montana’s Democrats, who should not let Jon Tester’s re-election blind them to the harsh reality that our legislature remains controlled by Republicans, and that an attempt to extend expanded Medicaid was overwhelmingly rejected by the voters.

Democrats lost both Public Service Commission seats on the ballot. They couldn’t even beat Randy Pinocci, whose gossamer credentials for the job are so thin they hardly can be called credentials. Bowen Greenwood defeated Democrat Rex Renk for clerk of the Montana Supreme Court. The final legislative make-up is still in flux — Democrats might have gained a seat or two in each house — but the Republican majorities are intact and if anything, more conservative than before.

The Montana Democratic Party functioned, and functions, as an arm of the national Democratic Party, hellbent on securing Tester’s re-election at any cost. To national Democrats, Montana is just a place to win a U.S. Senate election on the cheap. They have no compunctions about sacrificing Democratic control of the Montana legislature on the altar of congressional politics.

Going into the 2020 presidential election, Montana’s Democrats have little reason for optimism. The state continues to redden. President Trump probably will be re-elected. A Republican likely will replace Steve Bullock as governor. Republicans likely will maintain control of the offices of SecST, AG, Auditor, and Public Instruction. Republicans likely will maintain control of the legislature, and no longer constrained by the governor’s veto, burden Montana with mean-spirited and reactionary laws.

Therefore, if you’re a Democrat and you’re jumping with joy because Jon Tester won, stop. It would have been better for Montana had Rosendale replaced Tester in exchange for I-185 passing, and Democrats winning working majorities in both houses of the legislature.

A note on turnout

Votes still are being counted, but it’s clear this was the highest voting eligible population turnout midterm election since the voting age was lowered to eighteen. The VEP turnout is at 60.9 percent and probably will hit 61 percent when the tally is complete. In 2006, the VEP turnout was 57.1 percent.