9 November 2018 — 2232 mst
Montana's 2018 midterm turnout highest
since voting age lowered to 18 in 1972
Several thousand provisional votes are still being counted, but enough of the vote is in that we can conclude that the turnout in Montana’s 2018 election was the highest in a Montana midterm since the voting age was lowered to 18 in 1972. That’s remarkable.
For the analysis and graphs below I’ve used two turnout statistics.
Registered voter turnout is the statistic with which most people are familiar, and it has its uses, but the best statistic for assessing the level of civic involvement in an election is the Voting Eligible Population. It’s the ≥ age 18 population minus disqualified classes, which vary by state. In Montana, the disqualified are mainly foreign nationals, incarcerated felons, persons legally committed to mental institutions.
States are increasingly adopting VEP turnout as their official turnout statistic; for example, Minnesota. California uses both registered voter and VEP turnout. Montana’s officials, unfortunately, continue to resist publishing VEP turnout statistics. So do Montana’s reporters and most political analysts.
The argument for VEP turnout is simple. Image there’s a new state, Fremont, with a population of 1.3 million, a voting age population of 1.1 million, a VEP of one million, and just 100,000 registered voters. An election is held, 90,000 vote. The registered voter turnout is 90 percent. Pretty good, eh? Good enough for a secretary of state to brag. But the VEP turnout is just nine percent. Not so good, eh? More like a banana republic. I hope that some day that distinction registers with Montanans.
Below are graphs that plot both turnout statistics for Montana general elections from 1972 through 2018, as well as the percent of the vote that was cast by mail ballot.
After the official canvass at the end of the months, I’ll update the graphs and data set as needed.