30 November 2018 — 1052 mst
Trump much more popular in Montana
than in the nation as a whole
President Trump’s net popularity in Montana remains approximately 20 points higher than in the nation as a whole — and was higher in September and October than in January and August. That increased popularity, probably the result of his visits to Montana, didn't result in Matt Rosendale's defeating Jon Tester, Trump's prime objective, but it may well have boosted Republican turnout to the extent that Democrats could not ride a blue wave to electoral gains downballot.
The next graph displays the total disparity between Trump’s popularity in Montana and his popularity in the nation.
Trump no long enjoys a positive net approval in all the states he carried in 2016. As displayed by the map below, his approval now is underwater in enough states that the states where his net approval is positive do not provide a majority in the Electoral College. That of course, could change.
I’m not sure what accounts for Trump’s popularity in Montana. It’s not that the state’s population is ≈ 90 percent white. Vermont and New Hampshire are even whiter, yet Trump’s net approval there is negative. His popularity in the old Confederacy, Virginia excepted, is probably an expression of approval for his racist views.
I suspect that Montana’s love of Trump is partly a product of the state’s low population density, which fosters a sense of self-sufficiency that is not consistent with the communitarian values embraced by the Democratic Party. And it may be that the Democratic Party is seen as being too proudly diverse, and as harboring a corrosive, and deepening, antipathy toward white people without college degrees.