5 October 2018 — 0850 & 1137 mdt
Kavanaugh confirmation brawl is helping Republicans
nationalize the Montana senate election
Montanans now know how their senators will vote on the nomination of Brett Kavanaugh to the U.S. Supreme Court. Sen. Jon Tester will vote against the nomination. Sen. Steve Daines will vote for the nomination, as long as the vote does not occur when he’s scheduled to be in Montana, walking his daughter down the aisle at her marriage ceremony.
And we know how Matt Rosendale would vote were he a senator. He’d vote for the person President Trump nominated. Rosendale, and the Republican Party, consider the vote not as an exercise of advise and consent, but as an exercise of party loyalty — and not just an exercise of party loyalty, but an exercise of personal loyalty to Donald Trump himself.
Republicans will portray Tester’s vote not to confirm as disloyalty verging on treason. Television ads making that argument already have been produced. Whether that line of attack will eat into Tester’s narrow lead remains to be seen. It’s possible voters are so polarized on the issue that they’ll tune out arguments that vary with their beliefs.
And some think Kavanaugh’s confirmation could help Democrats. Here’s Neil Buchanan, writing at Dorf on Law:
I continue to believe that it will not at all matter to future Supreme Court jurisprudence whether Kavanaugh joins the Court or one of his ideological clones takes his place. I also suspect that confirming Kavanaugh will harm Republicans in the midterm elections next month. …
But overall, it seems reasonable to conclude that the donnybrook over the nomination will help the Republicans nationalize the election, and thereby help Rosendale. Trump’s net popularity in Montana is down from almost 20 points in January, 2017, but it’s still plus four or five points, and his absolute favorability rating is still above 50 percent. If the Republicans can turn the election into a referendum on Trump, Rosendale has a very good chance of winning.
There’s virtually no chance Tester can re-localize the election. He now must project himself as the stronger, more knowledgable, more capable man; and try to exploit latent xenophobia by arguing that Rosendale is an immigrant from the east coast who still disrespects native westerners by speaking Maryland English, and who’s a pretend rancher who raises subdivisions instead of cattle (this is why you seldom see Rosendale wearing a Stetson or even a John Deere baseball cap).
Updates. (1) Daines says he has a private jet on standby if his vote is needed to confirm Kavanaugh. It’s approximately 1,850 crow miles from Bozeman to Washington, D.C., at least a four-hour flight on a fast business jet. The minimum time from chapel to capitol probably is close to five hours. (2) Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) says she'll vote No. Sen. Flake (R-AZ) says he'll vote Yes. No word yet on Sens. Collins (R-ME) and Manchin (D-WV), who both voted for cloture. If Collins and Manchin vote No, the nomination goes down even with Daines’ vote. If Collins votes Yes, Daines’ vote will be needed for a 50–50 tie, which Vice President Mike Pence would break by voting Yes. Daines' vote also will be needed if Manchin votes Yes and Collins votes No. I think McConnell will schedule the vote for early evening to give Daines enough time to fly back to Washington, D.C.
I find nothing wrong with Daines’ making every effort to attend his daughter’s wedding.